Aleabit / Serenity

Identity

• X: @aleabitoreddit
• Substack/research brand: Serenity
• Real name: not disclosed (ex-RISC-V FDN, AI research scientist)
• Tier: ★ free (X-only as far as vault knows; research notes scraped from X)

Coverage

AI / semi supply-chain analyst. Tactical methodology focused on bottleneck hunting, 2nd-order earnings read-throughs, SEC 8-K mapping, paper-game unwinds. Photonics / CPO / SiPh focused.

Notable content

• serenity-method — methodology digest (bottleneck hunting + earnings read-throughs + 8-K mapping)
• SIVE (Sivers Semiconductors) — highest-conviction campaign, 21 screenshots, JBL/MRVL/Amazon laser supplier, AVGO/MRVL acquisition target. Events 2026-05-11 and 2026-05-13.

Cross-references

• serenity-method, SIVE, photonics, CPO, SiPh
• Skills informed: /primer §14b, /deep-dive §5, /earnings-recap §6, /filings
• Complementary to Caughran (FundamentEdge): Caughran = how to think; Serenity = where to look for the upstream bottleneck the market hasn't priced.