How are US consumers and firms responding to tariffs?

Overview

Apollo Global Management analysis examining behavioral and economic responses from U.S. consumers and businesses to tariff implementation. Provides empirical assessment of tariff impacts across consumer goods, business investment, and supply chains.

Key Focus Areas

Consumer Response

• Purchasing Behavior: How consumers adjust purchasing patterns in response to tariffs
• Price Transmission: Impact of tariffs on retail prices and consumer costs
• Substitution: Switching to alternative products, suppliers, or geographies
• Demand Shifts: Changes in consumer demand driven by tariff-induced price changes
• Sentiment: Consumer confidence and economic expectations

Business Response

• Supply Chain Adjustment: Relocation of sourcing and manufacturing
• Pricing Decisions: Pass-through of tariff costs to consumers
• Investment: Capital allocation and supply chain investments
• Sourcing Diversification: Moving away from tariffed suppliers
• Offshoring/Reshoring: Manufacturing location decisions

Economic Impacts

• Price Inflation: Impact on inflation rates and price levels
• Competitiveness: Effects on firm profitability and competitiveness
• Employment: Jobs impact across manufacturing and retail
• Growth: GDP and economic growth implications
• Trade: Retaliation and broader trade war escalation

Sectors Analyzed

• Consumer Goods: Electronics, apparel, household products
• Industrial: Manufacturing inputs and intermediate goods
• Automotive: Auto parts and vehicle pricing
• Technology: Semiconductors and high-tech equipment
• Energy: Oil, gas, and related products

Data and Analysis

• Real-time pricing data from retail sources
• Business survey data on sourcing and investment
• Trade data on import/export adjustments
• Consumer spending and sentiment indicators
• Supply chain tracking and logistics data

Investment Insights

• Market Opportunities: Companies best positioned for tariff environment
• Risk Factors: Exposure to tariff-affected sectors
• Hedging Strategies: Risk management in tariff environment
• Geographic Diversification: Supply chain location analysis
• Policy Sensitivity: Tracking policy changes and implications

Source

• File: Apollo-US- consumer-tariff_2025 04 26.pdf
• Location: Dropbox/_Quick drop/Tariff/
• Date: April 2025
• Authors: Torsten Slok, Rajvi Shah, Shruti Galwankar
• Firm: Apollo Global Management
• Type: Economic Analysis Report
• Status: Proprietary analysis

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