Work

How the ASEAN+3 guarantor takes a local-currency bond from no deal yet through wrap, default and recovery, and what the deal seat actually does day to day.

How a green, social, or sustainability-linked bond reaches market, and where a guarantee fits

The citable public documents behind the GTP additionality case — UNIDO's 2019 and 2024 independent evaluations, the 2019 Final Project Report (73 firms, 546 RECP measures, 18 feasibility-studied symbiosis cases, €2.9M/yr savings) and the peer-reviewed MDPI papers — what each shows, with stable URLs and accessibility flags.

What the UNIDO/MPI/SECO eco-industrial-parks programme delivers and where it stops — its finance tool 'guides rather than funds'. Recommendation: anchor GTP on the EIP feasibility / bankable-package layer (financing out of scope), built as a sector-portable method.

Seventeen questions to test GTP's additionality during Vietnam market sounding — what EU CERC and Finnpartnership actually do, where the gaps lie, and where GTP adds value — each tagged with the assumption it tests and the respondent. Key finding: EU CERC has no documented role in Vietnamese industrial parks; the real adjacencies are the UNIDO/MPI eco-industrial parks and the EUR 7M EU call.

A multi-modal sweep (official, news, event, LinkedIn-indexed) of what EU CERC and Finnpartnership actually do in Vietnam. EU CERC is absent from Vietnamese industrial parks; the genuine overlaps are the UNIDO/MPI/SECO eco-industrial parks and the EUR 7M EU 'greening industrial processes' call — different donors, complementarity rather than double-funding.

All 55 parks scored on four criteria for the GTP Finnish angle, then split into a near-term feasibility pipeline (DEEP C, Nam Cau Kien, Hiep Phuoc, Hoa Khanh, Amata Bien Hoa) and a long-term heavy-industry track (Dung Quat, Nghi Son, Gian Khau, Khanh Phu). Textiles excluded for Vietnam; no park is yet a certified eco-IP, so policy pull rests on UNIDO pilot status + on-site regulated emitters.

The working skeleton (v10): theory of change with the Outcome-2→Outcome-1 sub-sector linkage, two outcomes / four outputs, EUR 2M budget, the EU CERC / Finnpartnership / GTP additionality table, and the results framework. GTP's scope stops at the bankable feasibility package — financing is out of scope.

Outcome 2 by country (PH TVET-yes / ID no / VN open), the sector-anchored O2→O1 causal chains, and outcome-level indicators. GTP delivers investment-ready feasibility, not financing — indicators measure studies and bankability, not capital mobilised.

The per-section change-list from the VN→ID→PH research: lead with differentiated Finnish tech, name circular-economy sub-areas to stay clear of EU CERC, value-add by company layer, country-specific entry points. Indonesia's lead-set is draft for co-development; the Philippines' biggest gap is EU-GEPP SO3, where GGGI is already a partner.

Five Finnish↔local focus areas — industrial/MSME energy efficiency, EPR-driven RDF/SRF for cement, UCO→SAF feedstock, agri-residue biogas, and e-waste EPR (with caution). Each circular sub-area named specifically to stay clear of EU CERC.

The Philippine demand owners, the MSME and EPR-readiness gaps, and the demand assessment GTP would run — named targets treated as a target list, not signed demand.

PDP 2023-28 (servicification + circular economy), RA 11285 (EE Act), RA 11898 (EPR Act, escalating to 80% recovery by 2028) — and where Finland and the Philippines have signalled collaboration.

The enabling-environment gaps for the EE + EPR push — EE-Act enforcement, EPR-scheme implementation, ESCO market, incentives — and the government action that closes each.

Where the Philippines' DOE/DTI, ESCO and EPR-compliance capacity is thin, and the capacity-building GTP could run.

Finnfund, Finnpartnership, Finnvera, Business Finland and the EU layer in the Philippines — what each reaches and the upstream gap GTP fills.

GGGI's value-add by Finnish-company layer in the Philippines — the Operon-proof argument. Danfoss flagged Danish.

What GGGI provides the Philippines, plus an 11-question government questionnaire for the gaps research can't close, routed by respondent (DOE, DTI, DENR).

How the Philippines findings revise the CN: services + circular-economy entry, the EPR/SAF/MSME-EE focus areas, the Year-1 go/no-go gate, and the EU-CERC-clean framing.

Candidate focus areas led by the Finnish↔local-collaboration lens — process-heat/EE, flexible balancing power, POME biogas, geothermal/cooling, MRV. Textiles dropped; Danfoss flagged Danish; Vaisala deck-listing unconfirmed. A draft to walk through, not final.

The thesis anchor across all three countries: each government's medium-term sector priorities (ID RPJMN 2025-29, PH PDP 2023-28, VN SEDP 2026-30) crossed with where Finnish tech has a genuine edge — Chinese-dominated sectors and EU CERC's turf excluded.

Who needs industrial decarbonization in Indonesia, what they'll pay, the awareness gap — and the demand assessment GTP would design and fund. Indonesia's energy efficiency is improving ~0.07%/yr against the IEA's ~4%.

RPJMN 2025-29 (Asta Cita), the Industrial Decarbonization Roadmap's nine sub-sectors, GR 40/2025's NRE obligation, net-zero 2060 — and where Finland and Indonesia have signalled they want to work together.

The enabling-environment gaps for Indonesia's industrial-decarbonization push — EE enforcement, ESCO market, MRV, de-risking — and the government action that closes each.

Where Indonesia's institutional, technical and workforce capacity for industrial decarbonization is thin, and the highest-leverage capacity-building GTP could run.

Finnfund, Finnpartnership, Finnvera, Business Finland and the EU layer in Indonesia — what each reaches and the upstream project-development gap GTP fills.

GGGI's value-add by Finnish-company layer in Indonesia — the Operon-proof argument. Danfoss flagged Danish; Vaisala's deck-listing unconfirmed.

What GGGI provides Indonesia, plus a 10-question government questionnaire for the gaps research can't close, routed by respondent.

How Indonesia's findings revise the CN: entry via industrial decarbonization (not parks), the Finnish↔local focus areas, the grant-validated demand-side prep work, and the EU-CERC-clean framing.

The Vietnam template run synthesized: entry point, the differentiated-Finnish-tech framing, the park-and-demand picture, the value-add case, and the open questions for government — what changes in the CN's Vietnam treatment.

EU CERC is a global circular-economy resource centre, not a Vietnam project — €15M + €2M Finnish (not €3M). It funds awards, coaching and policy visibility (Sitra/Enabel), not in-country projects — so GTP must name a specific circular-economy sub-area. The closer adjacency is the Vietnam Team Europe Initiative.

PDP8, VNEEP3, JETP, Green Growth, net-zero, Decree 35, Resolution 57 — plus the October 2025 Strategic Partnership and its three government-to-government MOUs. Energy efficiency, circular economy and environment are where both governments and GTP converge.

The concrete enabling-environment gaps in Vietnam's industrial-decarbonization space — EE enforcement, ESCO market, MRV standards, de-risking — and the government action that closes each.

Where Vietnam's institutional, technical and workforce capacity for industrial decarbonization is thin, and the highest-leverage capacity-building GTP could run.

Finnfund, Finnpartnership, Finnvera, Business Finland and the EU layer in Vietnam — what each instrument reaches and the upstream project-development gap GTP fills.

The Operon-proof argument: GGGI's value-add differentiated by Finnish-company layer, because local-ops, project-stage and expansion-interest firms fail the 'no value-add' challenge for different reasons.

What GGGI provides Vietnam — and a 16-question government questionnaire for the gaps research can't close, routed by respondent (MOIT, MPI/NIC, MOF, Embassy of Finland).

Lead with differentiated Finnish strengths; down-rank EV, batteries, solar PV and wind where Chinese manufacturers lead. The prioritized/avoid split that filters the Finnish pipeline.

24 GTP-relevant local tenant companies in the major parks, by sector and decarbonization relevance — a working sample of the demand side.

32 Finnish companies mapped to Vietnam in three layers, tagged by technology and Chinese-overlap — the supply side of the pipeline.

All 84 Finnish companies from the 59-page energy-offering deck, by value-chain segment, technology and page-22 maturity tier — the master the country mapping draws on.