GTP — Outcome 2 → Outcome 1 Results-Framework Skeleton

Outcome 2 by country (PH TVET-yes / ID no / VN open), the sector-anchored O2→O1 causal chains, and outcome-level indicators. GTP delivers investment-ready feasibility, not financing — indicators measure studies and bankability, not capital mobilised.

GGGI · Resource Mobilization5 June 2026

Draft for co-development with Pink. Tight skeleton, not prose. From the 3-country O2 workflow (sector-anchored). 4 Jun 2026.

Theory-of-change linkage (one sentence)

Outcome 2 is not a parallel enabling-environment silo: each Outcome-2 intervention (awareness, policy, capacity, knowledge-sharing) is anchored to a named Outcome-1 sub-sector and runs the chain activity → industry in that sub-sector understands the gain or faces a credible incentive → firms invest in that sub-sector's technology (where Finnish tech fits) → the Outcome-1 bankable-project pipeline thickens, sub-sector by sub-sector.

Outcome 2 design, by country (needs differ)

Country	TVET / workforce call	Enabling areas to pursue
Philippines	yes-pursue — TVET/green-skills capacity is a genuine, evidenced enabling gap that ties cleanly to every Outcome-1 sub-sector via the skills -> firms can	awareness, capacity-building, knowledge-sharing, policy
Indonesia	no-not-needed — Per Pink's explicit instruction TVET is excluded for Indonesia; the capacity gaps here are professional certification (CIGA/CESV/energy-mana	awareness, capacity-building, knowledge-sharing, policy
Vietnam	uncertain-leave-blank — Genuinely two-sided, so leaving blank per instructions. FOR a TVET component: Vietnam's TVET system (under MOLISA historically) is assessed	awareness, capacity-building, knowledge-sharing, policy

Sector-anchored O2 → O1 causal chains (the linkage you specified)

Vietnam

[awareness] industrial heating & cooling / process heat — Awareness + demonstration on process-heat efficiency (electrified boilers, heat pumps, steam-system optimization) in F&B/pulp & paper plants → managers in these sub-sectors understand that heat is their largest energy/emissions line and that proven payback exists (UNIDO RECP: 7-8 month payback) → firms invest in heating/cooling and steam-system upgrades (where Finnish process-tech, e.g. Valmet, fits) → more bankable heating/cooling and process-heat projects enter the O1 pipeline.
[awareness] industrial energy efficiency / process — Awareness campaign on EE savings potential (industry can save 20-30%, up to 40%) aimed at designated energy users and SMEs → firms recognize EE as a profit line, not a compliance cost, and demand audits/energy-management systems → firms invest in EE/process upgrades → the bankable-EE-project pipeline (O1) widens, addressing ETP's #1 ranked barrier (demand) directly.
[awareness] emissions monitoring & MRV (ETS/CEMS-covered parks) — Awareness on ETS rules + that emissions-data accuracy directly determines quota sufficiency → covered firms in power/steel/cement understand non-compliance and quota cost exposure → firms invest in continuous emissions monitoring (CEMS) and GHG-inventory/MRV systems (where Finnish monitoring tech, Gasmet/Vaisala, fits) → a bankable MRV/monitoring-equipment pipeline (O1) emerges around the ETS-covered population.
[awareness] green digitalization — Awareness that Resolution 57's IoT-in-manufacturing/energy priority means digital energy-monitoring delivers a quantifiable EE/emissions saving → manufacturing firms see digital energy/emissions intelligence as ROI-positive, not just compliance → firms invest in IoT energy-management and production-optimization platforms (where Finnish digital/energy-intelligence tech fits) → a bankable green-digitalization pipeline (O1) forms, riding the government's own digital-transformation push.
[policy] industrial energy efficiency / process — Enforcement-design + penalty schedule for designated-user EE obligations (>=1,000 TOE industry / >=500 TOE buildings) → firms face a credible mandate to audit and run energy-management systems instead of ignoring it as under the weakly-enforced 2010 law → firms invest in audits, EMS and the EE measures audits surface → the bankable-EE-project pipeline (O1) widens. The incentive here is regulatory (credible enforcement), complementing the awareness chain.
[policy] emissions monitoring & MRV (ETS/CEMS-covered parks) — A published MRV standard + verifier-accreditation scheme → covered firms know exactly what they must measure and that verification is real → firms invest in CEMS/monitoring hardware and verifiable GHG-inventory systems (Finnish monitoring tech fits) to meet the standard → a bankable monitoring/MRV-equipment pipeline (O1) forms. Highest-leverage gap: the same missing measurement layer blocks both ETS enforcement AND the financing of EE savings.
[policy] industrial energy efficiency / process — Standard EPC template + bankable M&V protocol → savings become independently verifiable and ESCOs can structure financeable performance contracts instead of carrying all risk on the shared-savings model → firms (and public facilities) procure EE upgrades via ESCOs → more bankable EE/EPC projects in the O1 pipeline. Law 77/2025 created the statutory ESCO definition but the contractual/procurement plumbing is missing, so deployment is near-zero.
[policy] industrial energy efficiency / process — End-of-waste pathway + tax/VAT relief on by-product exchange → verified by-products and waste heat/material can legally and economically flow between firms in an eco-industrial park → firms invest in symbiosis/resource-efficiency infrastructure (heat recovery, water reuse, material exchange) → a bankable EIP resource-efficiency project pipeline (O1) forms inside Decree-35 parks. Currently at Nhon Trach 6, reusable steel-pipe cleaning solution must go to a licensed processor before reuse, and reselling a by-product triggers import-export tax + VAT.
[policy] industrial energy efficiency / process — An operational EE Fund providing de-risking (guarantees/first-loss) → banks gain a mechanism to lend against verified EE savings instead of assigning no value to future cash flow → firms can finance EE/process investments that were previously unbankable → the financed-EE-project pipeline (O1) converts. Closes the de-risking gap that, with the missing M&V layer, currently strands EE savings as unfinanceable.
[capacity-building] industrial energy efficiency / process — A cadre trained to prepare investment-grade audits and verify savings → EE service providers can produce bankable projects (the binding skill gap) → firms' EE proposals actually pass bank screening and get financed → the bankable-EE-project pipeline (O1) converts at far above the current ~8% rate. ETP's #1+#2 ranked capacity gap in one program, aligned with Law 77/2025's curriculum-standardization mandate.
[capacity-building] industrial energy efficiency / process — Bankers trained to value the future cash flow of an EE project (not just collateral) + a de-risking product → banks can underwrite verified EE savings → financeable firm EE investments actually close → the financed segment of the O1 EE pipeline grows. Mirrors the supply-side bankable-project cadre with the demand-side (lender) skill.
[capacity-building] emissions monitoring & MRV (ETS/CEMS-covered parks) — An accredited verifier pool for GHG/CEMS data → covered firms can actually get emissions externally verified to ETS standard → firms invest in CEMS/monitoring systems knowing verification capacity exists (Finnish CEMS tech fits, trained via in-country collaborator Viet An Environmental) → the monitoring/MRV-equipment pipeline (O1) converts. ETP's ETS work found 'strong consensus that more government-led capacity building is needed.'
[capacity-building] industrial energy efficiency / process — A working benchmarking database + trained provincial inspectors → DOIT can target enforcement and benchmark firms against sector peers → firms face credible monitoring and see how far they lag peers, creating an EE-investment incentive → more EE upgrades enter the O1 pipeline. Without provincial capacity, the 2025 devolution becomes the new institutional risk (devolution without capacity-building).
[knowledge-sharing] emissions monitoring & MRV (ETS/CEMS-covered parks) — Finnish measurement-standard knowledge shared into the MRV-standard-setting process → Vietnam adopts a robust, internationally-credible MRV/CEMS standard → covered firms invest in monitoring tech that meets a credible standard (Finnish tech competitive on the monitoring layer) → bankable MRV/monitoring pipeline (O1) strengthens. Routes the Finnish-technology angle through Outcome 2 (standard-setting) without lobbying — it is knowledge input to a government-led process.
[knowledge-sharing] industrial energy efficiency / process — International ESCO/EPC model knowledge shared into Vietnam's standard + Fund design → Vietnam's ESCO framework (templates, M&V, savings-sharing, focal point) is built on proven models rather than from scratch → ESCOs can operate and firms procure performance contracts → more bankable EE/EPC projects in the O1 pipeline. The source article itself points to DEDE/KfW as the model.
[knowledge-sharing] industrial energy efficiency / process — Sharing a replicable EIP project template + RECP payback evidence into the MOF policy process → the Decree-35 replacement makes EIP resource-efficiency investments standard, claimable and measurable → firms in certified EIPs invest in resource-efficiency/symbiosis measures with a known structure → a replicable, bankable EIP project pipeline (O1) forms. Uses the demonstrated 7-8 month RECP payback as the demand-pull anchor.

Indonesia

[awareness] process-heat efficiency (boilers/dryers/kilns across pulp & paper, F&B, cement) — Process-heat awareness/benchmarking targeted at pulp & paper, F&B and cement plants -> corrects the documented 'EE doesn't pay / not our core business' mindset that subsidized tariffs created and shows owners the 15-22% sub-sector savings on offer -> incentivizes those firms to invest in boiler/dryer/kiln efficiency and heat-recovery tech -> more bankable process-heat retrofit projects enter the O1 pipeline in exactly these sub-sectors.
[awareness] palm-oil / agri-processing (POME methane capture as on-site process-heat fuel) — Awareness aimed specifically at palm-oil mills on POME methane capture economics -> mills see that captured methane displaces fossil boiler fuel and earns offtake/credit revenue (incentive) -> drives mills to invest in POME biogas capture + on-site energy plant -> more bankable agro-industrial process-heat/methane projects in the O1 palm-oil pipeline.
[policy] MRV/emissions (initial 2027 ETS sectors: cement, fertilizer, steel, pulp & paper) — Policy/MRV-methodology support for the 2027 ETS in cement/fertilizer/steel/pulp & paper -> creates a credible carbon-price + compliance-cost incentive these firms currently lack (cheap power leaves no signal today) -> drives them to invest in EE and process-heat decarbonization to stay under their emission cap and monetize surplus allowances -> a stronger O1 project pipeline in pulp & paper (the GTP-relevant member of the initial four) and in MRV-enabled abatement projects generally.
[policy] process-heat efficiency (>=4,000 TOE/yr mandatory-energy-management firms) — Policy support to define Reg 8/2025 penalties + activate the MoF EE incentives -> converts a paper mandate into a real compliance cost AND a real fiscal carrot for the ~30-40% of additional industrial facilities now captured at the 4,000-TOE threshold -> drives those firms to invest in audits, ISO 50001, and process-heat/EE retrofits to comply and capture incentives -> a larger O1 process-heat/EE pipeline from mandate-driven demand instead of box-ticking.
[policy] process-heat efficiency (boilers — equipment standards) — A boiler MEPS/SNI plus TKDN alignment -> sets a minimum-efficiency floor and removes a local-content cost penalty on efficient process-heat equipment (incentive + standard) -> drives pulp & paper, F&B and cement firms to specify and buy higher-efficiency boilers/dryers when they re-equip -> raises the technical quality and bankability of process-heat projects in the O1 pipeline across those sub-sectors.
[capacity-building] process-heat efficiency + MRV/emissions (the auditor / M&V profession) — Building the CIGA/CESV + IPMVP auditor/M&V workforce -> produces credible, bankable investment-grade audits and verified-savings records that lenders and the 2027 ETS both require -> firms in pulp & paper, F&B and the hard-to-abate sectors can convert audit findings into financeable projects and verifiable emission reductions -> directly thickens the O1 pipeline of bankable process-heat/EE projects and ETS-eligible abatement projects.
[capacity-building] process-heat efficiency / energy management (ISO 50001 in pulp & paper, F&B, cement) — Energy-manager / ISO 50001 capacity in pulp & paper, F&B and cement -> firms can actually run the EnMS the mandate requires and systematically identify process-heat savings (incentive: compliance + measured cost reduction) -> drives investment in metered, prioritized process-heat and EE measures -> a steadier flow of well-scoped, bankable O1 projects from these sub-sectors.
[knowledge-sharing] pulp & paper / biomass (biomass co-firing & boiler fuel-switching) — Knowledge-sharing/demonstration on biomass co-firing in pulp & paper, tied to proven Finnish-supplier installs -> shows mill owners a de-risked, reference-able pathway to switch boilers off coal (incentive: lower fuel cost + future carbon-price exposure under 2027 ETS) -> drives pulp & paper and biomass-firing firms to invest in co-firing/fuel-switching retrofits -> directly feeds bankable biomass/process-heat projects into the O1 pulp & paper pipeline where Finnish technology is the supply side.
[knowledge-sharing] MRV/emissions + process-heat efficiency (ESCO/performance-contract market) — Standardized ESPC + M&V knowledge-sharing and the procurement fix -> gives facility owners in pulp & paper, F&B and process-heat-heavy plants a recognized, low-risk contracting vehicle to fund EE from verified savings (incentive: no upfront capital, guaranteed by M&V) -> drives them to commission ESCO-delivered process-heat/EE retrofits -> a functioning ESCO delivery channel that converts the mandate's demand into a real O1 project pipeline instead of unimplemented audits.

Philippines

[awareness] MSME energy efficiency — Awareness support (roadshows + walk-through audits + pre-approved-measure catalogue) focused on MSME energy efficiency -> corrects the firm-level misperception that 'efficiency = heavy capex' and gives MSMEs their first credible view of 1-2 year payback measures -> incentivizes MSMEs to invest in EE technologies (inverter cooling, efficient motors/refrigeration, rooftop PV) -> thickens the Outcome-1 MSME energy-efficiency project pipeline. Evidence: GGGI/DTI audited 10 MSMEs in Mindanao/Palawan, found measures with 1-2yr payback and ~PHP 1.9bn potential annual savings + 2.2 Mt CO2 avoidance, yet firms declined citing perceived financial burden; the roadshows gave many firms their first exposure to financing.
[policy] MSME energy efficiency — Policy + incentive support (RA 11285 MSME track + dedicated EE credit line) focused on MSME energy efficiency -> creates both an obligation/recognition hook and an affordable financing route for the 99.6% of firms that sit BELOW the RA 11285 'designated establishment' thresholds and so currently have no support trigger and no incentive -> removes the binding financing constraint (MSME bank lending fell to 4.1% of total in 2023 from 6.1% in 2019) so audits convert into financed projects -> drives MSME investment in EE technology -> strengthens the Outcome-1 MSME EE pipeline. RA 11285's mandatory regime applies only to Type 1/Type 2 designated establishments above high consumption thresholds; the Philippine Energy Plan and AmBisyon Natin 2040 'lack provisions related to MSMEs' (GGGI/DTI).
[capacity-building] MSME energy efficiency — Capacity-building (certified energy-auditor + M&V workforce pipeline) focused on MSME and industrial energy efficiency -> closes the ~200-auditor vs 7,000+ designated-establishment bottleneck and gives ESCOs the trusted, independent savings verification that performance-based (shared-savings) contracting requires -> lets ESCOs finance EE off-balance-sheet for MSMEs and Type-1 establishments and lets lenders trust the savings -> drives firm investment in audited EE retrofits -> strengthens the Outcome-1 MSME EE pipeline. Without M&V there is no trustable savings number, so no performance finance, so the pipeline stays shallow.
[policy] EPR-driven RDF/SRF for cement — Policy support (credible co-processing accounting + RDF/SRF quality standards + EPR Special-Fund deployment) focused on RDF/SRF-for-cement -> creates a durable, bankable demand signal: obliged enterprises facing the escalating EPR recovery schedule (40% 2024 -> 80% 2028) get a recognized, standardized credit for routing low-value flexible plastic into cement-kiln co-processing as RDF/SRF -> incentivizes investment in RDF/SRF pre-processing lines and offtake contracts with cement plants (e.g. the Prime Waste Pampanga-Holcim RDF supply deal) -> strengthens the Outcome-1 RDF/SRF-for-cement pipeline. NOTE the honest caveat: co-processing credits are the cheapest (~115/tvsupto 630 for community collection), so without quality/accounting guardrails this risks a race-to-the-bottom that crowds out recycling; the O2 activity must therefore be designed to make RDF/SRF credible and traceable, not merely cheap.
[knowledge-sharing] EPR-driven RDF/SRF for cement — Knowledge-sharing/MRV support (digital EPR registry + pathway-disaggregated public data + ECAR verification) focused on RDF/SRF-for-cement -> makes RDF/SRF tonnage and its emissions/diversion outcome transparently verifiable rather than self-reported -> gives cement offtakers, RDF processors and financiers a trusted volume-and-quality signal to underwrite RDF supply contracts -> incentivizes investment in RDF/SRF processing capacity feeding cement kilns -> strengthens the Outcome-1 RDF/SRF-for-cement pipeline. DENR's own 2026 priorities lead with digital monitoring and institutional capacity, an admission current verification leans on self-reporting.
[policy] UCO-to-SAF feedstock — Policy support (SAF roadmap + phased blending mandate + UCO-prioritized certification/incentives) focused on UCO-to-SAF feedstock -> creates the demand-pull and bankable offtake signal that is entirely absent today (no mandate, no finalized roadmap) and steers it toward used cooking oil rather than food-competing coconut oil -> incentivizes investment in UCO collection/aggregation and HEFA pre-processing capacity (the near-term route, with a named Finnish offtaker, Neste, already MOU'd with Cebu Pacific) -> strengthens the Outcome-1 UCO-to-SAF feedstock pipeline. Caveat held: the biofuels base is under strain (B4/B5 suspended on high coconut-oil prices, ethanol being imported), so the chain only holds for waste/residue feedstock, not coconut oil; a credible feedstock sustainability study should precede any mandate.
[capacity-building] EPR-driven RDF/SRF for cement — Capacity-building (ECAR verifier cadre + informal-sector formalization) focused on RDF/SRF-for-cement -> establishes a trusted verification workforce (current ECAR auditor count is unpublished and almost certainly undersupplied, mirroring the energy-auditor shortage) and a formalized, trained collection layer that reliably supplies sorted flexible plastic -> de-risks RDF/SRF feedstock volume and quality for processors and cement offtakers -> incentivizes investment in RDF/SRF processing and collection infrastructure -> strengthens the Outcome-1 RDF/SRF-for-cement pipeline. The framework 'lacks clear integration pathways' for informal collectors who do the actual collection.
[capacity-building] agri-residue biogas — Capacity-building (TESDA TRs + micro-credentials for biogas plant O&M) focused on agri-residue biogas -> creates the trained operator/technician base that lets agribusinesses and cooperatives actually run and maintain anaerobic digesters reliably -> removes the operate-and-maintain risk that deters firms from committing capital to biogas plants on rice-husk/livestock/agri-processing residue -> incentivizes firm investment in agri-residue biogas technology -> strengthens the Outcome-1 agri-residue biogas pipeline. TESDA's greened TRs skew to agriculture/HVAC/construction and do NOT yet cover bioenergy plant operation; the Green Jobs Act (RA 10771) offers a 50% additional deduction on green-skills training to fund this.

Results framework — outcome-level indicators

Outcome	Indicator	Target	Means of verification
O1	# pre-feasibility / feasibility studies completed	6–10	study deliverables; GGGI records
O1	# feasibility studies meeting an independent investment-ready (bankability) quality gate	majority of completed studies	external bankability review against a defined checklist
O1	# Finnish–local technology/commercial partnerships	≥6 (1/study; 6+ providers)	MoUs / supply or JV agreements
O2	# firms reached by sector-anchored O2 interventions that adopt EE/decarb measures	set at inception (indicative: dozens/country)	training/campaign records + adoption survey
O2→O1 link	# O1 pipeline projects enabled/incentivised by an O2 intervention in the SAME sub-sector	≥ the O1 investment-ready target	cross-tagged O1 pipeline log (project → triggering O2 activity + sub-sector)
O2	# enabling instruments operationalised via GTP (MRV methodology, certification scheme, MSME-EE track, EE Fund)	2–3 across the three countries	gazetted rules/IRRs; scheme launch records

Open for Pink

Vietnam TVET — recommended: mirror Indonesia (no broad TVET; fund a narrow certified-cadre line — investment-grade auditors + ETS/MRV verifiers), left BLANK in the framework for your confirmation. Original two-sided note: (PH=yes, ID=no). VN shows a real capacity deficit (ISO 50001 ~75 certs vs 2,441 designated users) but no discrete TVET deliverable surfaced. Decide: mirror PH (add a VN auditor/EnMS-practitioner certification line), mirror ID (policy-only), or keep VN O2 awareness-heavy / capacity-light.
Set the [TBC] targets — USD mobilised, # partnerships, per-country O2 reach/adoption.
Per-country dominant lever differs — VN: rules exist but no measurement spine / demand (awareness load-bearing); ID: frameworks exist but no teeth/awareness (subsidised-tariff legacy); PH: statutes exist, bottleneck is implementation capacity / certified workforce. Same ToC shape, different O2 indicator weighting per country.
Confidence flags (don't hardwire): ID 0.07%/yr EE-improvement is SETP-attributed; ID ETS-2027 timeline as-announced (re-check slippage); VN '<11% externally verified emissions' indicative secondary.