The thesis anchor across all three countries: each government's medium-term sector priorities (ID RPJMN 2025-29, PH PDP 2023-28, VN SEDP 2026-30) crossed with where Finnish tech has a genuine edge — Chinese-dominated sectors and EU CERC's turf excluded.
The thesis anchor across the three countries: start from each government's medium-term sector priorities, narrow to the sub-sectors where Finnish companies have a genuine technology edge, exclude Chinese-dominated sectors, and keep clear of EU CERC. Compiled 4 June 2026. The Indonesia sub-sector thesis below is a DRAFT for co-development with Pink and the Indonesia team — not final.
The plan hands us the sub-sector list directly. Asta Cita Mission 5 (industrialization) targets manufacturing at ~20–21.9% of GDP by 2029 (from 17.8%); Mission 8 covers environment/sustainability. The government's Industrial Decarbonization Roadmap names nine energy-intensive sub-sectors: cement, iron & steel, fertilizers, chemicals, pulp & paper, textiles, glass & ceramics, automotive, food & beverages. The Ministry of Energy's energy-efficiency savings potential by sub-sector ranks them: textiles 35%, steel 32%, cement 22%, pulp & paper 20%, petrochemical 17%, food 15%. Net-zero 2060; green-industry tools = NEK carbon pricing, Green Industry Standards (SIH), circular economy in industry, CCU. Sources: Setneg RPJMN 2025-2029 · CRPG on Perpres 12/2025 · IESR net-zero industry roadmap · Business-Indonesia energy efficiency
Confirms the existing-CN framing. Industry clusters: industrial/manufacturing/transport (IMT), tech/media/telecom (TMT), health & life sciences, modern basic needs. Explicitly pushes "servicification" — embedding services into manufacturing — and names circular economy + renewable energy as emerging job sectors. Growth target 6–8%. So PH = services + circular economy, as you've held. Source: Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028 · PDP Abridged
Confirms the published VN thesis. New growth drivers named: data economy, digital economy, green economy, circular economy; strategic/high-tech industry + automation, robotics, AI; manufacturing ~24.96% of GDP. Consistent with the Oct 2025 Strategic Partnership priorities (energy efficiency, circular economy, digital/automation). Source: SEDP 2026-2030 resolution · VietnamPlus 2026-2030 targets
Primary lens (Pink, 4 Jun): start from where Finnish technology has the highest potential to COLLABORATE with local Indonesian companies — to mutual benefit. The RPJMN priority set and the EE-savings ranking are co-filters (confirm the overlap), not the starting point; Chinese-dominated sectors and EU CERC's circular-economy turf are excluded. Textiles is dropped for Indonesia — no longer of interest — even though it ranks highest on EE potential and sits in the RPJMN roadmap.
| Sub-sector | Finnish ↔︎ local collaboration potential (primary) | In RPJMN roadmap / EE potential | Chinese overlap | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pulp & paper / biomass | High — Valmet (pulp, recovery & biomass boilers) ↔︎ large locals (APP/Sinar Mas, APRIL, Indah Kiat) | Yes / 20% | Low | Top |
| Food & beverage | High — Oilon heating & cooling (ChillHeat), refrigeration, process heat ↔︎ many local F&B firms (Indofood, Mayora …); broad base | Yes / 15% | Low | Top |
| Palm-oil milling / agri-processing | High — Finnish biomass-boiler & process-heat tech (Valmet, KPA Unicon) ↔︎ Indonesian palm/agri locals; very large sector | agri/biomass | Low | High |
| Chemicals / petrochemical | Medium-High — process heat (Oilon), automation (ABB), MRV (Vaisala/Gasmet) ↔︎ Pertamina, Chandra Asri, Pupuk | Yes / 17% | Low | Consider |
| Cement | Medium — waste-heat recovery, fuel-flexible/alt-fuel boilers (KPA Unicon) ↔︎ Semen Indonesia, Indocement | Yes / 22% | Low–Med | Consider (heavy) |
| Iron & steel | Limited — Chinese/Japanese-dominated equipment; nickel-smelter captive coal excluded | Yes / 32% | High | Lower / careful |
| — | (35%) | — | Dropped (Pink) | |
| Automotive · fertilizers · glass/ceramics | Low Finnish edge, or EV/battery (Chinese) | — | High / — | Exclude / park |
The shape of the thesis: GTP Indonesia starts from where Finnish tech and Indonesian local companies can genuinely collaborate to mutual benefit — pulp & paper / biomass, food & beverage (the heating/cooling anchor), palm-oil & agri-processing, and process-heat-intensive chemicals — then confirms each sits inside the RPJMN industrial-decarbonization priorities, is differentiated from Chinese suppliers, and stays at the project-bankability level (not EU CERC). The Finnish offer is best expressed as cross-cutting layers spanning these — process heat / fuel-flexible & biomass boilers, heating & cooling, energy management & MRV, drives & automation — not a single vertical. Textiles is dropped; steel is hard (overlap + heavy capex); automotive is out (EV/battery = Chinese).
To validate with the Indonesia team / fund through the grant (demand-side): which of these sub-sectors show the strongest demand signal and willingness to pay; anchor sites/firms; the baseline/demand assessment GTP would design and run. (Indonesia's industrial EE awareness is low — the demand assessment is itself a core grant activity, not a precondition.)
EU CERC non-overlap: this is industrial energy efficiency / process-heat decarbonization at the project-bankability level — not circular-economy policy, networks or awards (EU CERC's remit). Any circular element (e.g. industrial symbiosis, by-product reuse) must be named specifically and kept at the project level.