TXN — Texas Instruments

One-line take

The world's #1 analog-and-embedded chipmaker. Irrational Analysis identifies TXN as a high-V GaN winner via integrated drivers + safety, but GaN is a rounding error on a $17B-revenue base. Wrong vehicle for the SiC/GaN trade Pink is screening.

Why it's not the SiC/GaN vehicle

TXN's GaN product (LMG3422 family launched 2024) ships at low volume, primarily into datacenter PSUs and a handful of EV onboard chargers. Estimated FY2025 GaN revenue: <$300M, or <2% of total revenue. Even if GaN doubles every year through 2028 (aggressive), it remains <10% of revenue at that point. Pink would be paying $280B of mcap for a few percent of thesis-aligned exposure. Cleaner to own ON, NVTS at the right price, or AIXA upstream for SiC/GaN exposure.

TXN is investable for other reasons — analog cycle bottoming, US fab capacity reshoring, dividend + buyback yield — but those theses are separate.

Snapshot (2026-05-15)

• Price $308.17, +102% from 52w low $152.73, at 52w high $310.29
• Mcap $280B, EV $289B, fwd P/E 33×, EV/Rev 16×
• Rev +18.6% YoY, EPS +31% YoY (clear cycle recovery)
• 57% gross margin, 38% op margin, $1.07B FCF (compressed by US fab capex cycle)
• $5.1B cash, $14.0B debt
• 32 analysts mean PT $280.62 (−9% from spot), HOLD-leaning

TXN buyback timing — the load-bearing finding

(Closes the inv-q TXN buyback analysis item.)

Pattern: management paused buybacks in 2023 at exactly the prices where the FY2024–2026 rally would have generated outsized returns, then re-engaged at progressively higher prices through 2025. The pause was driven by the US fab capex cycle ($5B/yr peak capex through 2024 for Sherman/Lehi/Richardson), so it isn't purely irrational, but it does mean TXN bought MORE shares at $200–300 than at $150.

Capital-allocation read: C+ grade. TXN's buyback machine optimizes for steady-state share count reduction, not for opportunistic buying at troughs. Compare to ON which spent $1.38B in FY2025 at the trough — opposite pattern.

For investors: the buyback yield is real (~1.5–2% per year at current prices) but it's not a Berkshire-style "buy when cheap" program. Do not over-credit buyback yield in TXN's valuation case.

When TXN becomes interesting (for any thesis)

• $250 or below — re-rates toward fair value on the analog cycle alone
• A real GaN revenue disclosure (>$1B annual, >5% of revenue) — would re-activate the SiC/GaN vehicle thesis
• US fab capex cycle ending (FY2026E capex drops sharply) → FCF inflection visible

Cross-refs

• NVTS — pure-play GaN; the IA-aligned high-V GaN vehicle
• ON — vertical SiC; the IA-aligned high-V SiC vehicle
• IFX — broad power-semi proxy
• themes/sic-gan-high-voltage-thesis — sector context
• AIXA — MOCVD upstream