Dongguan Securities: MLCC Industry In-Depth Report
Published: March 25, 2026 Rating: Electronics Industry — Overweight (Maintain) Analyst: Luo Weibin, Dongguan Securities Research Institute Thesis: Supply-demand imbalance is intensifying, and the price of high-end MLCCs is expected to rise.
This is a clean English re-extraction from the original Chinese-language report, restructured for readability with consistent formatting. All data points, figures, and tables are preserved. Original Chinese figure labels retained in parentheses where contextually important.
1. MLCC Fundamentals and Domestic Substitution Opportunity
1.1 Where MLCCs fit in the passive component stack
Passive components are electronic parts that do not require external power to operate. They include capacitors, inductors, and resistors. In RCL devices, inductors primarily function as filters, current stabilizers, and electromagnetic interference suppressors; resistors function as voltage dividers, current dividers, filters, and impedance matching elements; capacitors function as bypassing agents, decoupling agents, filters, and energy storage. Capacitors are the most significant component of passive devices, accounting for 65% of the passive component market in 2023.
Downstream application split (passive components overall):
| End market | Share |
|---|---|
| Network/communications | 36% |
| Automotive electronics | 36% |
| Power and industrial | 10% |
| Smart/special applications | 13% |
| Consumer electronics | 3% |
| Other | 2% |
Capacitors break down by dielectric type into ceramic capacitors, aluminum electrolytic capacitors, tantalum electrolytic capacitors, and polyester film capacitors.
1.2 Why MLCC dominates
Ceramic capacitors account for over 90% of the ceramic capacitor market in the MLCC format (multilayer chip type). MLCCs represent 93% of ceramic capacitor production; single-layer ceramic and leaded multilayer types account for 4% and 3% respectively.
MLCC downstream application breakdown:
| End market | Share |
|---|---|
| Computers | 33.4% |
| Mobile terminals | 13.9% |
| High-end equipment | 15.8% |
| Automotive | 14.0% |
| Communications | 7.7% |
| Consumer electronics | 7.6% |
| Other | 7.6% |
Key MLCC characteristics vs alternatives:
| Property | Ceramic (MLCC) | Aluminum electrolytic | Tantalum electrolytic | Film (polyester) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capacity | Moderate | Higher | Higher | Smaller |
| Cost | Moderate | Lower | Moderate | Moderate |
| Compactness | High | Low | Moderate | Low |
| Frequency | Good | Poor | Poor | Moderate |
| Temperature stability | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Good |
| ESR | Small | Big | Big | Big |
| Reliability | High | Poor | Moderate | Poor |
| Polarity | Non-polar | Polar | Polar | Non-polar |
| Pressure resistance | High | Low | Moderate | High |
| Service life | Long | Shorter | Moderate | Long |
| Volume | Small | Big | Moderate | Moderate |
MLCCs are trending toward miniaturization and higher capacitance. Murata has released the 006003 size MLCC (0.16mm x 0.08mm), approximately 75% smaller in volume than the 008004. Taiyo Yuden has launched a 4532-size MLCC with capacitance up to 1,000uF. According to Murata data, MLCC capacitance-to-volume ratio increased from 1uF/mm3 in 1996 to 40uF/mm3 in 2020.
1.3 Manufacturing process and technology barriers
MLCC manufacturing involves dozens of steps across slurry preparation, ceramic film forming, printing, stacking, equalization, cutting, debinding, and sintering. The three core technologies are:
- Materials technology (ceramic powders and formulation)
- Overlay printing technology (electrode layer precision)
- Co-firing technology (simultaneous firing of ceramic dielectric and metal electrodes)
MLCC cost structure:
| Component | Low-capacitance MLCC | High-capacitance MLCC |
|---|---|---|
| Ceramic material | 20-25% | 35-45% |
| Internal electrode (Ni/Ag/Pd) | 5% | 5-10% |
| External electrode (Cu/Ag) | 5% | 5-10% |
| Packaging materials | 20-30% | 1-5% |
| Labor costs | 10-20% | 10-20% |
| Equipment depreciation + other | 20-35% | 20-30% |
Ceramic materials cost rises from 20-25% to 35-45% in high-cap parts because more dielectric layers require more raw material per unit. This is the cost structure that makes barium titanate (BaTiO3) powder pricing critical to MLCC margins.
1.4 Barium titanate: the upstream bottleneck
BaTiO3 is the dominant base powder for MLCC ceramic dielectric. Four preparation methods exist:
| Method | Cost | Application scope | Component control | Shape control | Particle size | Calcination | Grinding |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solid-state | Low | Commercial | Poor | Poor | >1.0µm | Required | Required |
| Co-precipitation | Moderate | Commercial/experimental | Good | Moderate | <1.0µm | Required | Required |
| Sol-gel | High | Experimental | Excellent | Moderate | <1.0µm | Required | Required |
| Hydrothermal | High | Commercial/experimental | Excellent | Good | <1.0µm | Not required | Not required |
The hydrothermal method produces the finest and most uniform particles, and is ready for mass production of high-end MLCC products. Companies using this method include Sakai Chemical of Japan and Guoci Materials (China).
Global MLCC ceramic powder market share:
| Company | Country | Market share |
|---|---|---|
| Sakai Chemical (堺化学) | Japan | 28% |
| Ferro (美国Ferro) | USA | 20% |
| **4092/4092 | Nippon Chemical (日本化学)** | Japan |
| Guoci Materials (国瓷材料) | China | 10% |
| Fuji Titanium (富士钛业) | Japan | 9% |
| Kyoritsu (共立) | Japan | 8% |
| Toho (东邦) | Japan | 6% |
| Other | — | 5% |
The top 5 companies (Sakai, Ferro, Nippon Chemical, Guoci, Fuji Titanium) hold 81% market share. The competitive landscape is highly concentrated.
Critical technology gap: Japanese companies can achieve average BaTiO3 particle size of 80-100nm. Chinese companies can only achieve 120-150nm. This 40-50nm gap directly limits the number of dielectric layers achievable in a given MLCC body. Japanese companies can stack 1,200 layers in a single 0.5-0.6µm thin-film dielectric, with Murata achieving the highest at 1,600 layers. Chinese companies average 800 layers in 1-2µm dielectric film. There is still a considerable technological gap compared to overseas companies, especially at the same size.
Chinese companies producing ceramic materials include Guoci, Fenghua, and Sanhuan. With years of technological accumulation, they have achieved comprehensive coverage of base powders and formulation powders. In the high-end sector, Chinese ceramic powder technology still needs further breakthroughs. Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Yageo, and Fenghua are downstream customers.
1.5 Three-tier competitive landscape
The global MLCC industry is divided into three tiers:
Tier 1 — Japan and South Korea: Murata Manufacturing and Samsung Electro-Mechanics. Decades of accumulated expertise in technology, products, and customers. Specialize in high-value-added products: small size, high capacity, high voltage. Target automotive, high-end smartphone, and AI server markets.
Tier 2 — Taiwan: Yageo and Walsin Technology. More diverse product portfolios, mainly concentrated in low-to-mid-range. In recent years, actively expanding into high-value sectors (automotive, industrial). Production capacity continuously increasing.
Tier 3 — Mainland China: Technological level still lags behind Tier 1 and 2. Primarily focused on medium-to-large-size, low-capacitance products. Recent technological breakthroughs include several small-size, high-capacitance products. Representative manufacturers include Fenghua Advanced Technology (风华高科) and Sanhuan Group (三环集团).
2024 Global MLCC market share:
| Company | Share | Tier |
|---|---|---|
| Murata (村田) | 31.8% | 1 |
| Samsung Electro-Mechanics (三星电机) | 11.8% | 1 |
| Taiyo Yuden (太阳诱电) | — | 1 |
| TDK | — | 1 |
| Kyocera (京瓷) | — | 1 |
| Top 5 combined | 83.6% | — |
| Yageo (国巨) | 5.0% | 2 |
| Walsin Technology (华新科技) | 3.2% | 2 |
| Fenghua (风华高科) | 2.5% | 3 |
| Sanhuan Group (三环集团) | 1.9% | 3 |
| Huaguo Technology (华国科技) | 1.5% | 3 |
In the automotive-grade MLCC market (2022 data), the top four manufacturers by volume are Murata (47.0%), Samsung Electro-Mechanics (14.6%), TDK (14.6%), and Taiyo Yuden (10.4%).
In the AI server MLCC segment, Murata and Samsung Electro-Mechanics dominate, with Samsung holding approximately 40% of the high-end AI server MLCC market (source: Maeil Business Newspaper, South Korea).
1.6 China's domestic substitution potential
In 2025, China imported 2.56 trillion MLCCs worth US$6.179 billion. The imported MLCC unit price averages approximately US$2.41 per thousand units, higher than the export unit price of US$2.11 per thousand units. This price gap reflects the higher value of imported high-end products.
If 50% of the 2025 import volume were replaced by domestic production, the scale of domestic substitution would reach 1.28 trillion units.
2. Supply-Demand Imbalance and High-End MLCC Pricing
2.1 AI server demand: the structural driver
AI data centers are driving a surge in both the volume and price of MLCCs. In AI data centers, MLCCs are primarily used in power systems, server racks, compute boards, and switching boards. AI chips operate at low voltages, have high current requirements, and experience significant instantaneous fluctuations, necessitating high-capacitance MLCCs for local decoupling and instantaneous power replenishment.
Murata states that the GB300 platform requires approximately 30,000 MLCCs, about thirty times that of a mobile phone and three times that of an automobile, with a single rack consuming as many as 440,000 units. Murata predicts that global server capacitor demand will maintain a compound annual growth rate of 30% from 2025 to 2030.
Murata's updated guidance (from their IR Day):
- Medium-Term Direction 2027: AI servers = 10,000-20,000 MLCC per baseboard
- Revised estimate (FY25-FY30): 15,000-25,000 per baseboard
- vs FY2025: 3.3x increase in demand
- Demand for miniaturization and high capacitance: 2.0x
2.2 Automotive and robotics demand
According to TDK data, MLCC content by powertrain type:
| Powertrain | MLCCs | Inductors | Piezoelectric |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICE | 5,000 | 450 | 100 |
| HEV | 6,000 | 600 | 140 |
| PHEV | 8,000 | 650 | 160 |
| BEV | 10,000 | 700 | 180 |
MLCCs are also widely used in humanoid robot modules: control systems, drive systems, communication modules, power management systems, human-machine interaction (camera stabilization and signal processing), and bionic systems (high-frequency signal control). Smart glasses are increasingly using 01005 MLCCs, with demand of 150-200 cells per pair (per TrendForce).
2.3 Capacity utilization and pricing signals
Murata (FY25Q1-Q3):
- Capacitor revenue: ¥217B (Q1, +7% YoY) → ¥238B (Q2, +12% YoY) → ¥239.9B (Q3, +12.2% YoY)
- Capacitor B/B ratio: 1.04 (Q1) → 1.01 (Q2) → 1.12 (Q3)
- Revised FY2025 earnings guidance upward
- Capacity utilization 90-95%
- Inventory did not accumulate; plans to increase AI investment
- Product inventory in the server field is zero backlog
Samsung Electro-Mechanics (Q1-Q4 2025):
- Capacitor product revenue grew from KRW 1,095B (Q1) → 1,133B (Q2) → 1,188B (Q3) → 1,257B (Q4, +21% YoY)
- Components division revenue reached KRW 1.32 trillion (Q4, +22% YoY), with capacitor revenue at KRW 1.19 trillion (+21% YoY)
- Plant utilization exceeded 96% in Busan, South Korea; Tianjin, China; and Philippines in Q1 2025, further increasing to 99% in Q3
- 2026 strategy: increase high-capacitance MLCC for ADAS and AI server; increase auto MLCC penetration; increase high-voltage MLCC for xEV
Yageo (Q1-Q4 2025):
- MLCC product revenue (NT$ mn): 6,096 (Q1) → 6,292 (Q2) → 6,220 (Q3) → 6,366 (Q4, +18% YoY)
- Total revenue NT$35.968 billion for Q4, YoY increase of 18%
- B/B ratio remains above 1 in all end markets, with AI-related being strongest
2.4 Lead times by manufacturer (Q1 2026)
Murata:
| Product | Lead time | Trend | Pricing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Filters | 12-16 wks | Stable | Stable |
| Inductors / Transformers | 8-12 wks | Stable | Stable |
| Ceramic Capacitors (<1µF) | 10-14 wks | Rising | Stable |
| Ceramic Capacitors (>1µF) | 18-20 wks | Rising | Stable |
| Automotive-grade Ceramic | 14-16 wks | Rising | Stable |
| Leaded Ceramic | 16-18 wks | Rising | Stable |
| Specialty Capacitors | 15-16 wks | Rising | Stable |
Taiyo Yuden:
| Product | Lead time | Trend | Pricing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Filters | 15-17 wks | Stable | Stable |
| Hybrid Al Polymer Caps | 24-33 wks | Rising | Stable |
| Inductors / Transformers | 6-9 wks | Stable | Stable |
| Ceramic Capacitors (<1µF) | 10-14 wks | Stable | Stable |
| Ceramic Capacitors (>1µF) | 20-22 wks | Rising | Rising |
| Automotive-grade Ceramic | 20-22 wks | Rising | Stable |
Samsung Electro-Mechanics:
| Product | Lead time | Trend | Pricing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thick Film Resistors | 44-46 wks | Stable | Stable |
| Ceramic Capacitors (<1µF) | 20 wks | Rising | Stable |
| Ceramic Capacitors (>1µF) | 20 wks | Rising | Rising |
| Automotive-grade Ceramic | 20 wks | Rising | Rising |
TDK:
| Product | Lead time | Trend | Pricing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ceramic Capacitors (<1µF) | 16-20 wks | Stable | Stable |
| Ceramic Capacitors (>1µF) | 20-24 wks | Rising | Stable |
| Automotive-grade Ceramic | 20-24 wks | Rising | Stable |
Yageo:
| Product | Lead time | Trend | Pricing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ceramic Capacitors (<1µF) | 22 wks | Stable | Stable |
| Ceramic Capacitors (>1µF) | 22 wks | Rising | Rising |
| Automotive-grade Ceramic | 22 wks | Rising | Rising |
Walsin Technology:
- High-capacitance MLCCs: 22 weeks lead time (per Taiwanese perspective)
- Low-capacitance MLCCs: 12-14 weeks
2.5 Price increase announcements
In February, Murata executives indicated that MLCC order inquiries were twice the current production capacity, and they were evaluating the practical application of AI. Based on actual demand, a decision on whether to raise prices was planned for the end of March.
Murata decided to increase prices for AI server and high-end automotive-grade MLCC products starting in April, with increases ranging from 15% to 35%. Samsung Electro-Mechanics also plans to raise MLCC prices starting in April, with increases potentially reaching double-digit percentages.
Domestic manufacturers like Fenghua Advanced Technology and Sanhuan Group, which have been deeply involved in the industry for many years and are actively breaking into the high-end market, are also expected to benefit from the price surge brought about by the current imbalance between supply and demand for high-end MLCCs.
3. Risk Warnings
- AI demand falls short of expectations: If AI demand disappoints, it will impact the high-end MLCC market, affecting shipment volume and price.
- Slower-than-expected technological advancements: High-end MLCCs have high technological barriers to entry. If progress falls short, product shipments will be affected.
- Increased industry competition: If major MLCC manufacturers significantly expand production capacity of high-end MLCCs, oversupply and pricing pressure may result.
4. Investment Targets (as of March 24, 2026)
| Stock code | Company | Price | EPS 2024A | EPS 2025E | EPS 2026E | EPS 2024A (check) | PE 2025E | PE 2026E | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 000636.SZ | Fenghua High-Tech | RMB 20.10 | 0.29 | 0.31 | 0.42 | 68.93 | 64.84 | 47.86 | Buy and Hold |
| 300408.SZ | Sanhuan Group | RMB 54.24 | 1.14 | 1.40 | 1.71 | 47.46 | 38.74 | 31.72 | Buy and Hold |
Sources
- Data sources cited throughout: China Business Industry Research Institute, Dongguan Securities Research Institute, Murata China Official WeChat Account, TDK official website, Samsung Electro-Mechanics official website, Yageo official website, Walsin Technology official website, Future Electronics official website, Sanhuan Group, Aibang Semiconductor Network, New Materials Insights WeChat Official Account, DakCap Prospectus, Qianzhan Industry Research Institute, China Capacitor Network, Maeil Business Newspaper (Korea), TrendForce, General Administration of Customs (China), Hongxing Electronics Prospectus, Micro-Rong Technology official website
- Original report: Dongguan Securities Co., Ltd., Research Institute (东莞证券股份有限公司研究所), 24th Floor, Jinyuan Center, No. 1 Keyuan South Road, Dongguan City, Guangdong Province, 523000
- Risk classification: Medium to high risk. All information derived from publicly available sources.
Topics
- supply-chain-security