TEL Tokyo Electron — Q4 FY2026 (Jan–Mar 2026) Earnings Recap
TL;DR
TEL reported Q4 FY2026 on 2026-04-30 and beat EPS by 14.6% (¥468.67 actual vs ¥409.10 expected) — its first material beat in four quarters and the largest surprise in the recent run. The stock gapped up +6.9% on 5/01 and now trades ¥47,450, within 1.5% of the 52w high (¥48,190). Forward EPS estimates have jumped sharply across all periods in the last 7 days, suggesting consensus is in the early stages of catching up to the print.
Pink does not hold TEL. The screen flagged it 2026-04-25 as a Stage 2 + rising-revisions add candidate; the print validates the screen.
Headline Result
| Metric | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY2026 EPS (¥) | 409.10 | 468.67 | +59.57 (+14.6%) |
Stock reaction:
- 4/28 (Mon, pre-print): ¥45,150 close (down -2.6% on day)
- 4/30 (print day): ¥44,390 close (-1.7% intraday — likely report after close)
- 5/01 (post-print): ¥47,450 close (+6.9% gap up)
Net 2-day move from pre-print baseline: +5.1%.
Beat/Miss Track Record (last 4 quarters)
| Quarter | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 (Apr–Jun 2025) | ¥270.99 | ¥257.13 | −5.1% miss |
| Q2 FY2026 (Jul–Sep 2025) | ¥270.71 | ¥270.18 | −0.2% in line |
| Q3 FY2026 (Oct–Dec 2025) | ¥270.60 | ¥258.59 | −4.4% miss |
| Q4 FY2026 (Jan–Mar 2026) | ¥409.10 | ¥468.67 | +14.6% beat |
Pattern reversal. Three small misses then a 14.6% beat is unusual — typically signals either (a) a one-time benefit (FX, mix, accounting), (b) management low-balling guidance after the prior misses, or (c) an inflection in end demand. Without the call transcript I can't tell which; flagging for follow-up.
Forward EPS Revisions — Consensus is Catching Up
| Period | 90d ago | 60d ago | 30d ago | 7d ago | Current | Δ 90d | Δ 7d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0Q (current) | ¥306.79 | ¥327.58 | ¥327.58 | ¥328.98 | ¥385.76 | +25.7% | +17.3% |
| +1Q | ¥334.68 | ¥349.67 | ¥349.67 | ¥346.62 | ¥394.26 | +17.8% | +13.7% |
| 0Y (FY2027E) | ¥1,322.20 | ¥1,383.93 | ¥1,414.88 | ¥1,424.08 | ¥1,494.84 | +13.1% | +5.0% |
| +1Y | ¥1,559.04 | ¥1,689.83 | ¥1,739.77 | ¥1,757.68 | ¥1,800.67 | +15.5% | +2.4% |
The 7-day jumps (especially +17.3% on 0Q and +13.7% on +1Q) are post-print — sell-side is repricing forward estimates upward. This is a "stocks follow numbers" setup: revision direction is positive and accelerating.
Valuation Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current price | ¥47,450 |
| Market cap | ¥21.68T (~$140B) |
| Forward P/E | 37.1x |
| Trailing P/E | 37.9x |
| P/S (TTM) | 8.9x |
| Dividend yield | 1.52% |
| 52w range | ¥19,870 – ¥48,190 (+139% from low) |
| Position vs 52w high | -1.5% below |
Stock has more than doubled in the last 12 months. At 37x forward P/E it is not cheap, but the rising-revisions backdrop is what justifies multiple expansion.
Sell-Side Stance
| Buckets | Current | 1m ago | 2m ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Buy | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Buy | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| Hold | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Sell | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Strong Sell | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Stable consensus skewing positive. The 2 "strong sell" outliers are notable but small relative to 17 buy-bucket ratings.
Second-Order Read-Through
TEL is the world's #2 wafer fab equipment maker — etch, deposition, EUV coating-developer. Its Q1 print is a leading indicator for the broader semicap stack. Adjacent nodes to watch:
| Node | Ticker | Expected impact | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direct competitor (etch / dep) | LRCX, AMAT | Sympathy positive — confirms WFE demand | Both already reported (LRCX 4/22, AMAT pending) |
| Photoresist supplier | TOK 4186.T | Positive — if TEL ships more coater-developers, photoresist volume follows | Print timing? |
| Substrate / packaging | Ibiden 4062/4062 | 4062.T, Unimicron, Nanya | Mixed — TEL is front-end, not back-end driver |
| Memory customer (Kioxia) | 285A/285A | 285A.T | Positive — TEL beat partly driven by memory capex recovery |
| Probe-card / test (held) | 6855/6855 | 6855 JEM, 6871/6871 | 6871 Micronics |
Read-through flag for Pink's portfolio:
- TEL beat is a mild positive for held 285A Kioxia (memory capex recovery) and 6855 JEM (probe-card demand follows WFE) into their May prints.
- It is not a read-through for 268A Rigaku (X-ray metrology is a different sub-segment with its own demand drivers) or TER Teradyne (back-end test, different cycle).
Action Items
- [ ] Update
KB/wiki/TEL/TEL.mdthesis section — currently a stub. Q4 print is a useful anchor for whether to do a full/profileor/deep-dive. - [ ] Add to
KB/inv-q.md"Tickers to Research" — TEL was already on the 4/25 weekly screen; the print confirms it. Recommend/profile 8035.Tor/deep-dive 8035.Tnext research cycle. - [ ] Pre-print read-through to held 285A and 6855 — TEL's beat raises the bar on what those prints need to deliver.
Source Notes
- Data: yfinance 2026-05-02 (
earnings_history,quarterly_income_stmt,history,info,recommendations,eps_trend) - Wiki stub:
~/Dropbox/Wafflebun/KB/wiki/TEL/TEL.md(last updated 2026-02-28; needs refresh) - Filings:
~/Dropbox/Wafflebun/KB/wiki/TEL/tel-filings.md - Screen trigger:
~/Dropbox/Wafflebun/KB/brief/weekly-semi-review.md(2026-04-25, ranked #2)
Caveats: No earnings call transcript was pulled — segment breakdown, geographic mix, and forward guidance commentary are missing. The beat magnitude (+14.6%) likely has a guidance-related explanation that this recap does not capture. Run /filings 8035.T or pull the official IR slides before sizing any position.