LQDT — Liquidity Services
Thesis
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Investment Thesis
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Influenced by DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency)-led government rightsizing efforts to cut down USD 2T spread over 4 years per Elon
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This would include “recovery” by recovering the value of goods owned by agencies and locations are that are no longer operational
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Investment Thesis
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Why We Think The Opportunity Exists Today
Business Model
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What is the business and revenue model under each segment
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Competitive advantage – what allows LQDT to position well
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What is the company’s level of recovery rates
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What allows Liquidity Services to be able to make every secondary market a liquid and stable one in order to address these challenges of negative recovery (ie disposal costs exceed resale value)
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What is the ‘Machino’ business – where LQDT charges subscription fees
Key Metrics
| Metric | Current | Prior | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | |||
| Gross Margin | |||
| FCF |
Catalysts
- Why now for LQDT? What are the catalyst?
- Ratios / financials to check
Risks
- What are the key risks of LQDT
- Concentration risks exist with Amazon
Valuation
Research Sources
Source updates (auto-maintained)
Drop/Citrini Articles (Dec 22, 24) - CitriniResearch 25 Trades for 2025
Citrini's full "25 Trades for 2025" primer lists Liquidity Services (LQDT) as a single-name equity under "18b. Deregulation Beneficiaries" within the "Fiscal Policy & Election" existing-themes cluster — positioned as an idea to keep on screen rather than a new standalone thesis.
Relevant to your thesis: Reinforces the DOGE/government-rightsizing angle; Citrini's deregulation and fiscal-policy framing maps directly to the government agency asset-recovery catalyst already at the core of your bull case.
Source: dropfile://Citrini Articles/Primers/CitriniResearch 25 Trades for 2025.pdf
Drop/Citrini Articles (Jun 13, 25) - 25 Trades for 2025 (4)
Citrini lists LQDT as a single-name equity within their "Fiscal Policy & Election → Deregulation Beneficiaries" trade cluster for 2025, flagging it as an idea in an existing theme rather than a new standalone thesis.
Relevant to your thesis: Confirms the DOGE/government-rightsizing angle — Citrini frames LQDT as a deregulation and fiscal-policy beneficiary, consistent with the government agency asset-recovery catalyst.
Source: dropfile://Citrini Articles/Baskets/25 Trades for 2025/25 Trades for 2025 (4).pdf