JP — Japan Semiconductor / AI Supply-Chain Basket
This is a basket / entry-levels page, not a single company. It tracks buy and entry levels across Japan-semi & AI-supply-chain names. Each company has its own canonical ticker page — link to those with
{TICKER}/{ticker}. (Folded in the standalonejp-semi-buy-checkliston 2026-06-02.)
Date: 2026-03-10 | Post-drawdown assessment | Prices from TradingView (live)
Cross-Stock Summary
| | Rigaku (268A) | JEM (6855) | Santec (6777) | Anritsu (6754) | |---|---|---|---|---| | What They Do | X-ray metrology for semiconductor fabs | Probe cards for HBM memory testing | Tunable lasers & optical test instruments | 5G/6G & optical transceiver T&M | | Price (TradingView) | ¥1,836 | ¥6,640 | ¥21,530 | ¥2,700 | | Market Cap | ¥400B | ¥95B | ¥282B | ¥387B | | FY2027E EPS | ¥72 | ¥417 | ¥663 | ¥113 | | Forward P/E (FY2027E) | 25.5x | 15.9x | 32.5x | 23.9x | | Fair Value Range | ¥2,160-2,520 | ¥8,300-10,400 | ¥21,000-22,000 | ¥2,500-3,050 | | Bull Case | ¥3,000+ | ¥12,500+ | ¥28,500+ | ¥3,750+ | | Bear Case | ¥1,200-1,400 | ¥3,000-4,000 | ¥12,000 | ¥1,800-2,000 | | Upside to Fair Value | +18% to +37% | +25% to +57% | ~0% (fairly valued) | -7% to +13% | | Upside to Bull | +63% | +88% | +32% | +39% | | Drop from ATH | -11.6% | -35.3% | -16.1% | -15.6% |
Technical Indicators
| Rigaku (268A) | JEM (6855) | Santec (6777) | Anritsu (6754) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSI(14) | ~50-55 (est. post-drawdown) | ~40-45 (est. post-drawdown) | ~65-70 (est. post-drawdown; was 98!) | ~45-50 (est. post-drawdown) |
| 50-day MA | ~¥1,321 | ¥7,857 | est. ~¥14,000-16,000 | est. ~¥2,400-2,500 |
| 200-day MA | ~¥987 | ¥5,395 | est. ~¥8,000-10,000 | ~¥2,032 |
| Price vs 50 DMA | +39% above | -15% BELOW | above | +8-12% above |
| Price vs 200 DMA | +86% above | +23% above | far above (~115%+) | +33% above |
| Volume support | ~¥1,300 zone | ~¥5,400-5,800 | ¥18,350 | ~¥2,000-2,100 |
| Fib 38.2% retracement | ~¥1,528 (from ¥641 low) | ~¥6,468 (from ¥1,459 low) | ¥17,172 (from ¥3,375 low) | ~¥2,414 (from ¥1,145 low) |
| Fib 50% retracement | ~¥1,359 | ~¥5,865 | ¥14,518 | ~¥2,172 |
| ATH | ¥2,076 | ¥10,270 | ¥25,660 | ¥3,198 |
| 52-week low | ¥641 | ¥1,459 (est.) | ¥3,375 | ¥1,145 |
| Beta | 1.23 | 1.99 | 1.53 | 1.27 |
How to read this table:
- RSI below 30 = oversold (good entry signal); above 70 = overbought (risk of pullback)
- Price below 50 DMA = short-term trend broken (caution or opportunity depending on thesis)
- Price above 200 DMA = long-term uptrend intact (buy the dip is valid)
- Fibonacci retracements measure how much of a rally typically gets given back: 38.2% is "healthy pullback," 50% is "serious correction," 61.8% is "trend may be broken"
Quality Scorecard
| Rigaku | JEM | Santec | Anritsu | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | ~52% | ~42% | 58% | ~51% |
| Operating Margin | 17.7% | 22.8% | 30.9% | 10.7% |
| ROIC | ~12% | 23% | 46% | ~9% |
| Revenue Growth (fwd) | +14% | +18% | +20% | +9% |
| Net Cash Position | Net neutral | ¥7B+ net cash | ¥10.7B net cash | ¥48.5B net cash |
| Insider/Family Ownership | <1% (Carlyle 41%) | ~15-19% (Ohkubo family) | ~50% (Tei family) | <1% |
| Analyst Coverage | 5-6 analysts | 1 analyst | 2 analysts | 9 analysts |
| Moat Strength | Strong (#1 XRD globally) | Narrow (small player) | Strong (niche monopoly) | Moderate (niche dominant) |
| Cyclicality | Moderate | High (memory cycle) | Moderate | Moderate |
| Business Quality (A-F) | A- | B+ | A+ | B+ |
Entry Target Methodology
Entry prices are derived from two independent frameworks that must converge:
1. Fundamental Floor (valuation-based)
Entry Price = Margin-of-Safety Multiple × FY2027E EPS
The "margin of safety" multiple is set lower than fair-value multiple based on each stock's risk profile:
- High cyclicality (JEM) → use 13-14x (vs. 20-25x fair value) = bigger discount
- Execution risk (Anritsu GLP2026) → use 18-19x (vs. 22-27x fair value)
- Overhang risk (Rigaku/Carlyle) → use 18-19x (vs. 30-35x fair value)
- Liquidity risk (Santec thin float) → use 24-26x (vs. 32x fair value)
2. Technical Confirmation (chart-based)
The fundamental entry must align with at least one of these technical support levels:
- 200-day moving average — the most important long-term trend line. Buying at the 200 DMA in an uptrend is one of the highest-probability setups.
- 50-day moving average — medium-term support. Breaking below is a warning; bouncing off is bullish.
- Fibonacci retracement levels — 38.2% and 50% retracements of the major rally are natural magnets for pullbacks.
- Volume-weighted support — price levels where heavy historical trading volume creates a "floor" of buyers.
3. Momentum Filter (timing)
Don't buy just because price hits the target. Wait for:
- RSI(14) below 40 (ideally below 30 = oversold)
- MACD crossover turning bullish (signal line crossing above)
- Volume spike on the bounce — confirms institutional buying, not just retail dip-buying
Buy Checklist — Updated with Technical Levels
Rigaku (268A) — WATCH for ¥1,300-1,400
| Checklist Item | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | PASS | #1 globally in XRD, structural semi metrology shift |
| Forward earnings support | PASS | FY2027E EPS ¥72, 14%+ revenue growth |
| Valuation at entry | PASS | 25.5x FY2027E at current; 18-19x at ¥1,300-1,400 entry |
| Technical support | CAUTION | 50 DMA at ~¥1,321 is the first real support; 200 DMA at ~¥987 is the floor |
| RSI | NEUTRAL | Est. ~50-55 post-drawdown — not oversold yet |
| Catalyst identified | PASS | Carlyle block trade = entry opportunity; ONYX 3200 ramp |
| Risk manageable | CAUTION | Carlyle 41% overhang; still 86% above 200 DMA = extended |
Entry strategy (revised):
- ¥1,836 (now): Fundamentally OK (25.5x FY2027E) but technically extended — no nearby support. Small starter only (1-2%).
- ¥1,300-1,400 (ideal): 50 DMA convergence + 18-19x FY2027E + Fib 50% retracement at ¥1,359. This is where fundamental and technical align. Add to full position (4-5%).
- Stop-loss: Below ¥1,000 (near 200 DMA at ¥987 — if this breaks, trend is broken)
JEM (6855) — APPROACHING entry zone
| Checklist Item | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | PASS | Purest HBM probe card play |
| Forward earnings support | PASS | FY2027E EPS ¥417, 15.9x at current price |
| Valuation at entry | IMPROVING | 15.9x FY2027E at ¥6,640 — getting cheaper fast |
| Technical support | WATCH | Broke below 50 DMA (¥7,857) — bearish. Next support: 200 DMA at ¥5,395 |
| RSI | APPROACHING | Est. ~40-45 — not yet oversold but dropping |
| Catalyst identified | PASS | New factory ramp, HBM4 cycle, TSMC Kumamoto |
| Risk manageable | CAUTION | 15.8% dilution, memory cycle boom-bust, beta 1.99 |
Entry strategy (revised):
- ¥6,640 (now): Below 50 DMA = broken short-term trend. Don't catch the knife yet. RSI not oversold.
- ¥5,400-5,800 (ideal): 200 DMA convergence (¥5,395) + Fib 50% retracement (¥5,865) + fundamental 13-14x FY2027E. Strongest technical + fundamental confluence of all four stocks. Full position (2-3%).
- Stop-loss: Below ¥4,500 (below 200 DMA with no support until ¥3,000-4,000)
Santec (6777) — WAIT for gap fill to ¥16,000-17,000
| Checklist Item | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | A+ | Best business of the four: 58% GM, 46% ROIC, founder alignment |
| Forward earnings support | PASS | FY2027E EPS ¥663, 20%+ growth |
| Valuation at entry | FAIL | 32.5x FY2027E at current — priced for perfection |
| Technical support | ¥18,350 first | Volume support at ¥18,350; then air down to ¥14,000-16,000 zone |
| RSI | STILL HOT | Est. ~65-70 post-drawdown; was 98 pre-drawdown. Needs more cooling. |
| Catalyst identified | PASS | AI optical accelerating; 1.6T cycle; medical OCT expansion |
| Risk manageable | CAUTION | 39% float, beta 1.53, thin liquidity = violent reversals |
Gap fill analysis:
| Scenario | Price Target | Probability | What Triggers It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mild correction to volume support | ¥18,000-19,000 | 50-60% | Normal RSI cooldown; momentum fades; volume support holds |
| Gap fill to Fib 38.2% zone | ¥16,000-17,200 | 25-35% | Broader market selloff continues; momentum unwinds fully |
| Deep correction to Fib 50% | ¥14,000-14,500 | 10-15% | Earnings miss + sector rotation + liquidity crisis in thin-float name |
| V-recovery to new highs | ¥22,000+ | 15-20% | Drawdown was purely macro; AI optical demand reaccelerates |
Entry strategy:
- ¥21,530 (now): Don't touch. RSI still elevated, no margin of safety, 32.5x FY2027E.
- ¥18,000-18,500 (watchlist): Volume support level. If it holds with RSI at ~40, a starter position (1%) is defensible at 27-28x FY2027E.
- ¥16,000-17,000 (ideal): Fib 38.2% retracement zone + likely near the 50 DMA + 24-26x FY2027E. This is where an A+ business becomes a genuine bargain. Full position (2%).
- ¥14,000-14,500 (dream entry): Fib 50% retracement. 21-22x FY2027E for a 20% grower with 58% gross margins and 50% founder ownership. Back up the truck if this happens.
- Stop-loss: Below ¥12,000 (Fib 61.8% retracement = trend potentially broken)
Anritsu (6754) — WAIT for ¥2,000-2,100 (200 DMA convergence)
| Checklist Item | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | PASS | De facto optical production test standard; fortress balance sheet |
| Forward earnings support | PASS | FY2027E EPS ¥113, GLP2026 targets credible |
| Valuation at entry | MARGINAL | 23.9x FY2027E at current — fair but not cheap |
| Technical support | STRONGEST CONFLUENCE | 200 DMA at ~¥2,032 ≈ Fib 50% at ¥2,172 ≈ fundamental ¥2,000-2,100 target |
| RSI | NEUTRAL | Est. ~45-50 — needs to drop further |
| Catalyst identified | PASS | April 23 earnings; FY2026 guidance; 1.6T qualification wins |
| Risk manageable | PASS | Most defensive: net cash 14% of mkt cap, beta 1.27, PQA ballast |
Entry strategy:
- ¥2,700 (now): +33% above 200 DMA, RSI not oversold. No urgency.
- ¥2,000-2,100 (ideal): Best technical + fundamental alignment of all four stocks. 200 DMA (~¥2,032) + Fib 50% (¥2,172) + fundamental 18-19x FY2027E all converge in a tight ¥2,000-2,172 zone. Wait for RSI to hit ~30-35 at this level. Full position (2-3%).
- Stop-loss: Below ¥1,700 (well below 200 DMA; GLP2026 thesis likely broken)
Priority Ranking — Updated with Technicals
| Rank | Stock | Price | Entry Target | Confluence | Action | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JEM (6855) | ¥6,640 | ¥5,400-5,800 | 200 DMA + Fib 50% + 13-14x FY2027E | WATCH | • Broke below 50 DMA — heading toward 200 DMA (¥5,395), the natural magnet • At ¥5,800 you pay 14x FY2027E for a pure-play HBM tester growing 18%+ • Wait for RSI <35 at 200 DMA; set limit order at ¥5,600 |
| 2 | Anritsu (6754) | ¥2,700 | ¥2,000-2,100 | 200 DMA + Fib 50% + 18x FY2027E | WAIT | • Three signals converge in a ¥2,000-2,172 zone — cleanest setup of the four • At ¥2,100 you get a defensive compounder (net cash 14% of mkt cap) at 18.6x • Set limit at ¥2,050; April 23 earnings could be the catalyst that drives it there |
| 3 | Santec (6777) | ¥21,530 | ¥16,000-17,000 | Fib 38.2% + est. 50 DMA + 24-26x FY2027E | WAIT | • RSI was 98 pre-drawdown — parabolic stocks retrace to Fib 38.2% (¥17,172) 25-35% of the time • At ¥16,500 you pay 25x for an A+ business (58% GM, 46% ROIC, 50% family-owned) • Set limit at ¥16,500; if ¥18,350 volume support breaks, gap fill accelerates |
| 4 | Rigaku (268A) | ¥1,836 | ¥1,300-1,400 | 50 DMA + Fib 50% + 18-19x FY2027E | STARTER OK | • Still 86% above 200 DMA — technically extended despite reasonable 25.5x FY2027E • Carlyle owns 41% and will sell in blocks — each block trade creates a dip to buy • 1-2% starter now is fine; add to 4-5% at ¥1,300-1,400 when 50 DMA (¥1,321) is tested |
Why the ranking changed from the previous version:
- JEM moved to #1 because the -35% drawdown from ATH has brought it closest to technical support (200 DMA), AND its forward P/E has compressed to 15.9x — the cheapest in the group on FY2027E
- Anritsu moved to #2 because the 200 DMA convergence zone is the cleanest technical setup
- Rigaku dropped to #4 because at ¥1,836 it's still 86% above the 200 DMA — technically extended despite being fundamentally reasonable
Post-Drawdown Bottom Line
The March 9-10 drawdown is creating opportunities, but the right approach is patience with limit orders, not panic buying:
-
JEM is the one to watch most closely. It broke below its 50 DMA and is heading toward the 200 DMA (¥5,395). If it gets there with RSI in the 30s, that's the best entry in this group.
-
Anritsu has the cleanest setup on paper — three independent signals (200 DMA, Fib 50%, fundamental valuation) all converge at ¥2,000-2,100. Set the limit order and wait.
-
Santec's gap fill to ¥16,000-17,000 is plausible (25-35% odds) given the parabolic rally, RSI at 98 pre-drawdown, and 39% free float. But the base case is ¥18,000-19,000 on volume support.
-
Rigaku is a small starter at ¥1,836 if you want exposure now, but the ideal entry is ¥1,300-1,400 at the 50 DMA — requires patience or a Carlyle block trade catalyst.
Set limit orders. Let the market come to you.
Sources
- Individual deep dives:
268A-rigaku-deep-dive.md,6855-jem-deep-dive.md,6777.md,6754-anritsu-deep-dive.md - Compare analysis:
japan-semicon-compare-handoff.md - Prices: TradingView (live, March 10, 2026)
- Technical data: Investing.com, Stockopedia, StockAnalysis, web search compilations
- Moving averages and RSI are estimates where noted — confirm on TradingView before executing