Fiscal Year End: March 31 (JEM calls year ending March 2026 "FY2025") Most Recent Results: Q3 FY2025 (9 months ended December 31, 2025), reported February 6, 2026 Next Full-Year Results: Mid-May 2026

Download Manifest

File	Type	Period	Size	Path
6855-Q3-FY2026-tanshin.pdf	Q3 Tanshin (Japanese)	Apr-Dec 2025	363K	interim/
6855-H1-FY2026-tanshin.pdf	H1 Tanshin (Japanese)	Apr-Sep 2025	359K	interim/
6855-FY2024-full-year-tanshin.pdf	FY2024 Full Year	Apr 2024-Mar 2025	648K	annual/

Source: JEM IR (jem-net.co.jp/ir/), TDnet. All amounts in ¥M unless noted. Japanese GAAP.

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Section A: Filing Monitor (Last 90 Days)

1. Filing Activity Overview

Date Filed	Filing Type	Description	Source
Feb 25, 2026	Q3 Tanshin (with auditor review)	Reviewed version of Q3 FY2025 results	jem-net.co.jp
Feb 6, 2026	Q3 Tanshin	9-month consolidated results + upward guidance revision + new factory announcement + dividend increase	TDnet
Nov 7, 2025	H1 Tanshin	6-month consolidated results	jem-net.co.jp

Filing activity: Elevated — three significant announcements on Feb 6. Guidance raised, dividend increased, and new factory construction disclosed simultaneously. This is a company signaling maximum confidence.

2. Q3 Results (9 Months Ended December 31, 2025)

Consolidated P&L (Cumulative 9 Months, ¥M)

Metric	9M FY2024	9M FY2025	YoY Change
Revenue	14,738	20,675	+40.3%
COGS	8,600	11,651	+35.5%
Gross Profit	6,137	9,023	+47.0%
Gross Margin	41.6%	43.6%	+2.0pts
SGA	3,305	3,995	+20.9%
R&D (within SGA)	1,101	1,225	+11.3%
Operating Profit	2,832	5,028	+77.5%
Operating Margin	19.2%	24.3%	+5.1pts
Ordinary Profit	2,938	4,893	+66.5%
Net Income	2,052	3,468	+69.0%
EPS (¥)	162.52	274.34	+68.8%

Revenue up 40%, operating profit up 78%, margins expanding 5 points to 24.3%. This is an acceleration from H1 (which was already strong) — meaning Q3 standalone was the best quarter yet.

Implied Q3 standalone (Oct-Dec 2025):

• Revenue: ¥8,353M (vs Q2 ¥6,885M, vs Q1 ¥5,437M) — sequential acceleration every quarter
• Net Income: ¥1,770M (vs Q2 ¥710M) — 2.5x the prior quarter

The quarterly acceleration pattern is the headline: Q1 ¥5.4B → Q2 ¥6.9B → Q3 ¥8.4B. Revenue is ramping as memory probe card demand explodes and the Kumamoto 4th factory hits full utilization.

Segment Performance (9 Months)

Semiconductor Inspection Parts (Probe Cards) — 99% of Revenue

Metric	9M FY2024	9M FY2025	YoY
Revenue	¥14,571M*	¥20,507M	+40.7%
Segment Profit	¥3,756M*	¥6,367M	+69.5%

*Estimated from total less electron tube.

The probe card business is on fire:

• Memory probe cards drove the growth: domestic and international advanced semiconductor demand expanding significantly, especially for HBM and advanced nodes
• Non-memory probe cards maintained steady growth
• Major customer orders recovering alongside new advanced node demand
• Kumamoto 4th factory completed the previous year is now in full operation, contributing to both production capacity and margin improvement through higher utilization
• Despite upfront investment costs for "future production capacity and product capability strengthening," high domestic factory utilization rates drove operating profit well above prior year

Electron Tube Parts — 1% of Revenue

Metric	9M FY2024	9M FY2025	YoY
Revenue	¥167M	¥167M	+0.1%
Segment Profit	¥7M*	¥6M	(19.0)%

Immaterial legacy segment.

Market Context (from Q3 Commentary)

Management describes the semiconductor market environment:

• Data center and generative AI image processing semiconductor, HBM, and advanced semiconductor demand "continues to be robust"
• Automotive semiconductor recovery is "delayed"
• Memory probe card expansion was the primary growth driver, with demand from both domestic and international advanced semiconductor fabs
• The company is investing ahead of demand: the Feb 6 announcement includes notice of new factory construction — likely a 5th factory to further expand capacity

3. Balance Sheet (December 31, 2025, ¥M)

Item	March 2025	Dec 2025	Change
Cash & deposits	12,148	13,244	+1,096
Accounts receivable	10,656	10,793	+137
Inventories (finished + WIP + raw)	4,163	4,627	+464
Total current assets	28,463	29,742	+1,279
PP&E	10,638	11,214	+576
Construction in progress	442	1,205	+763
Total fixed assets	11,395	11,829	+434
Total assets	39,859	41,572	+1,712
Current liabilities	6,789	6,053	(736)
Non-current liabilities	5,155	5,137	(18)
Total liabilities	11,944	11,191	(753)
Retained earnings	20,450	23,034	+2,583
Net assets	27,914	30,381	+2,466
Equity ratio	70.0%	73.1%	+3.1pts

The construction in progress jump from ¥442M to ¥1,205M (+¥763M) is the new factory buildout beginning. Cash increased ¥1.1B despite dividends, and the equity ratio strengthened to 73.1%. Liabilities actually declined. This company is self-funding its expansion.

Interest-bearing debt: Bonds ¥850M + Long-term borrowings ¥5,095M = total ~¥5.9B. Net cash position: ¥13.2B - ¥5.9B = ¥7.3B net cash. Extremely healthy.

6. Guidance (REVISED UPWARD on February 6, 2026)

Metric	FY2024 Actual	FY2025E Guide (Revised)	YoY Change
Revenue	23,829	28,100	+17.9%
Operating Profit	4,586	6,500	+41.8%
Ordinary Profit	4,639	6,200	+33.6%
Net Income	3,454	4,300	+24.5%
EPS (¥)	273.48	339.91	+24.3%
DPS (¥)	70.00	80.00	+14.3%

Guidance was raised — this wasn't the original plan. Management saw the Q3 acceleration and revised upward. The dividend was also increased from ¥70 to ¥80.

Progress Check: 9M vs Full Year Guide

Metric	9M Actual	FY Guide	Q4 Implied	Q4 Prior Year
Revenue	20,675	28,100	7,425	9,091
OP	5,028	6,500	1,472	—
NI	3,468	4,300	832	—

Q4 revenue needed: ¥7,425M — below Q3's ¥8,353M and well below prior-year Q4 of ¥9,091M. This guide is conservative. Either management is sandbagging, or they expect some Q4 seasonal moderation. Either way, this guide should be beatable.

9M OP margin: 24.3%. Full-year implied OP margin: 23.1%. Q4 implied OP margin: 19.8% — lower than the run rate, suggesting some investment/cost front-loading in Q4 for the new factory.

8. KPIs & Historical Context

Metric	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025 TTM
Revenue (¥M)	18,521	23,599	20,781	17,461	29,766
Revenue Growth	+18.2%	+27.4%	(11.9)%	(16.0)%	+47.4%
OP Margin	14.4%	21.0%	15.4%	5.0%	22.8%
Net Income (¥M)	2,037	3,802	2,612	622	4,870
EPS (¥)	189.93	311.13	207.25	49.28	385.31
DPS (¥)	15.00	40.00	40.00	40.00	80.00E

The story is clear: FY2024 (ending March 2024) was a cyclical trough — revenue -16%, OP margin collapsed to 5%, NI plummeted 76%. FY2025 was the recovery year (+36% revenue). And now FY2026 is the breakout — revenue +40% through 9 months, margins back to cycle highs at 24%, and a new factory being built to capture the next leg of demand.

This is a classic semiconductor cycle play hitting the upswing at exactly the right time: AI/HBM demand is the tide, and JEM's probe cards are riding it.

9. Red Flag Alerts

Red Flag	Detected?	Details
Auditor change	No	—
Going concern	No	—
Guidance cut	No — RAISED	Revenue, OP, NI, and DPS all revised upward
New factory announcement	Positive	New factory construction disclosed Feb 6 — signals confidence in sustained demand
Insider selling	No	—
Inventory buildup	Monitor	Inventories +11.1% (¥464M) — warranted given revenue growth but worth watching
FX loss	Monitor	¥116M FX loss vs ¥81M FX gain prior year — yen weakness impact

No red flags. The guidance raise + new factory + dividend increase is the triple signal of maximum management confidence. The only watch item is the new factory capex — execution risk on construction timing and whether demand sustains through the buildout period.

10. Key Takeaways

1. JEM is in the best shape in its history. TTM revenue of ¥29.8B and EPS of ¥385 are both all-time records. The stock hit an ATH of ¥10,270 on Feb 25 — the market knows.

2. Memory probe cards are the growth engine. HBM, advanced DRAM/NAND, and AI semiconductor demand is driving massive probe card volume. This is the same memory investment cycle benefiting Rigaku (268A) on the metrology side.

3. Kumamoto 4th factory is delivering. Full operation is driving both capacity and margins higher. And now they're building another factory — the demand signal is strong enough that management is doubling down with a multi-year capacity commitment.

4. Guidance is conservative. Q4 implied revenue of ¥7.4B is below Q3's ¥8.4B and well below prior-year Q4 of ¥9.1B. Unless there's a specific reason for Q4 softness, the full-year guide should be beatable.

5. Dividend raised to ¥80 from ¥70 — nearly double the ¥40 paid in FY2023 and FY2024. Management is sharing the upside with shareholders.

11. Investment Implications

Does this change the thesis? Confirms and strengthens it. JEM is a direct play on the AI/HBM semiconductor investment cycle via probe cards — a consumable, mission-critical component that scales linearly with test volume. The Kumamoto factory expansion and new factory construction show management is confident this isn't a one-quarter wonder.

Single most important takeaway: Revenue has accelerated every quarter — Q1 ¥5.4B → Q2 ¥6.9B → Q3 ¥8.4B. That sequential ramp pattern, combined with a guidance raise and new factory announcement, is the strongest possible signal that demand is real and sustained.

What to watch for full-year results (May 2026):

1. Q4 revenue: does it beat the conservative ¥7.4B implied guide? (I'd expect ¥8B+)
2. FY2026 guidance (ending March 2027): does management guide for continued growth or a plateau?
3. New factory construction timeline and expected capacity online date
4. Memory vs non-memory mix: how dependent are they on the HBM cycle?
5. Customer concentration risk: how many customers drive the growth?

Action: HOLD at ATH. The business is executing brilliantly, but the stock is at its all-time high (¥10,270) and trading on peak-cycle earnings. Cyclical stocks at ATH on raised guidance are exactly where the risk/reward gets tricky — the question is whether this cycle has more room to run (AI/HBM suggests yes) or whether you're buying the top. The new factory capex commitment suggests management sees multi-year demand, not a one-year spike.

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Sources: JEM IR, StockAnalysis, Simply Wall St

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Topics

• ai-infrastructure
• japan-semi