Download Manifest

File	Type	Period	Size	Path
268A-FY2025-results-presentation.pdf	Earnings Presentation	FY2025 (Dec 2025)	2.5M	annual/
268A-H1-2025-results.pdf	Interim Results (Tanshin)	H1 FY2025 (Jun 2025)	179K	interim/
268A-Q3-2025-results.pdf	Q3 Results Presentation	9M FY2025 (Sep 2025)	1.1M	interim/
268A-medium-term-plan-2025.pdf	Medium-Term Business Plan	Feb 2025	3.0M	investor-presentations/
268A-dec24-2025-filing.pdf	TDnet Disclosure	Dec 24, 2025	251K	annual/
268A-dec17-2025-filing.pdf	TDnet Disclosure	Dec 17, 2025	274K	annual/
268A-irstreet-report.pdf	IRStreet Summary Report	FY2025	377K	annual/

Source: Rigaku Holdings IR (rigaku-holdings.com/english/ir/), TDnet (tdnet.jpx.or.jp), IRStreet. Official FY2025 results presentation dated February 13, 2026. All amounts in ¥100M (億円) unless noted.

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Section A: Filing Monitor (Last 90 Days)

1. Filing Activity Overview

Date Filed	Filing Type	Local Equivalent	Description	Source
Feb 13, 2026	Earnings Results	決算短信 + 決算説明資料	FY2025 full-year consolidated results + presentation (31 pages)	TDnet
Jan 28, 2026	Share Cancellation	適時開示	Cancellation of all 4,284,500 treasury shares acquired via buyback	IRStreet
Dec 24, 2025	Share Buyback Completion	適時開示	Completion notice for share repurchase program (~¥4B)	IRStreet
Dec 17, 2025	TDnet Disclosure	適時開示	Corporate disclosure (details in downloaded PDF)	IRStreet

Filing activity: Moderate — dominated by the full-year earnings release and shareholder return actions (buyback completion + treasury share cancellation). No unusual filings.

2. Annual Report (FY2025 — Year Ended December 31, 2025)

Financial Highlights

Rigaku reported IFRS-basis results with non-IFRS adjusted metrics as the primary management focus. All figures in ¥100M.

Metric	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Change	vs. Forecast
Revenue	906	941	+3.9%	(1) miss
Gross Profit	523	528	+1.0%	—
Gross Margin	57.7%	56.1%	(1.6)pts	—
Operating Profit (IFRS)	183	167	(8.7)%	—
Operating Margin	20.3%	17.7%	(2.5)pts	—
Net Income	136	114	(16.3)%	—
EPS (¥)	60.44	50.19	(17.0)%	—
Adj. EBITDA	234	217	(7.3)%	(14) miss
Adj. EBITDA Margin	25.9%	23.0%	(2.9)pts	(1.5)pts miss
Adj. Operating Profit	209	186	(11.0)%	—
Adj. Operating Margin	23.1%	19.8%	(3.3)pts	—
Adj. Net Income	153	127	(17.0)%	(9) miss
Adj. Net Margin	17.0%	13.5%	(3.5)pts	(1.0)pts miss
Adj. EPS (¥)	66.61	55.19	(17.1)%	—
R&D Spend	68	73	+7.4%	—
R&D / Revenue	7.5%	7.8%	+0.3pts	—
Capex	63	66	+4.8%	—

The headline: revenue grew 4% but profits got crushed. Adjusted EBITDA margin dropped nearly 3 points to 23%, and net income fell 17%. This isn't a demand problem — it's a margin problem driven by heavy investment in manufacturing capacity, R&D, and an unfavorable product/regional mix shift. Management is explicitly framing this as "investing through the cycle" rather than a structural issue.

Segment Performance

General Purpose Analytical Instruments

Metric	FY2024	FY2025	YoY
Revenue	413	404	(2.2)%
Operating Profit	71	62	(12.7)%
Operating Margin	17.4%	15.4%	(2.0)pts

The bread-and-butter business was soft. Market headwinds from the academic spending cycle and US policy impacts dragged on the top line. The bright spots: Europe grew +27% YoY driven by academia/new materials/sustainability R&D demand, and Japan grew +3%. But Americas academic budget cuts hit hard, and China fell -23% as prior-year supplementary budget effects reversed.

By end market, the mix is shifting: academia/government revenue dipped from ¥187B to ¥179B, but life sciences grew from ¥36B to ¥45B (+25%) on pharma/chemical demand. Semi & electronics within this segment dropped from ¥59B to ¥49B as the SiC market cooled.

Semiconductor Process Control Equipment

Metric	FY2024	FY2025	YoY
Revenue	233	278	+19.3%
Operating Profit	74	80	+8.1%
Operating Margin	31.7%	29.0%	(2.7)pts

This is where the action is. Revenue up 19% — the second consecutive year of 20%+ growth. The demand shift from mass production to cutting-edge R&D (sub-2nm logic, next-gen memory) played directly into Rigaku's sweet spot.

The application breakdown tells the real story:

• Memory exploded from ¥23B to ¥72B (+213%) — DRAM/NAND investment in Asia, both production and development
• WFE grew from ¥54B to ¥71B (+31%) — next-gen technology development projects
• Advanced Logic/Foundry fell from ¥82B to ¥58B — Americas weakness, partially offset by Asia/Japan gains
• Power Device dropped from ¥39B to ¥23B — SiC cooldown

Regional shift: Americas went from ¥35B to ¥72B (doubling), Asia ex-China from ¥11B to ¥90B (8x!), while Japan shrank from ¥97B to ¥67B and Europe from ¥51B to ¥16B. The growth epicenter has decisively moved to Asia.

Operating margin dipped from 31.7% to 29.0% despite the revenue growth — product and regional mix effects plus capacity buildout costs. But 29% operating margin on a +19% growth business is still exceptional.

Parts & Service

Metric	FY2024	FY2025	YoY
Revenue	259	259	flat
Operating Profit	61	51	(16.4)%
Operating Margin	23.9%	19.8%	(4.1)pts

Revenue flat but margins got hammered — a 4-point drop. The culprit: EUV multilayer mirror revenue declined ~¥10B due to weak demand. Ex-EUV, the business grew +4%. Service revenue (maintenance contracts, field service) grew +8% on expanding install base and price increases. But EUV drag and unfavorable US service margins from Trump policy impacts more than offset the gains.

Geographic Breakdown (Full Year, ¥100M)

Region	FY2024	FY2025	YoY	% of FY2025
Japan	243	274	+12.8%	29.1%
Americas	277	234	(15.5)%	24.9%
Europe	110	138	+25.5%	14.7%
Asia ex-China	124	168	+35.5%	17.9%
China	150	125	(16.7)%	13.3%
Total	906	941	+3.9%	100%

The geographic story is dramatic. Asia ex-China surged +36% to become the third-largest region, driven by memory/semi equipment. Europe surprised with +25% growth. Americas and China both declined — Americas from academic budget cuts and shifting semi equipment demand geography, China from supplementary budget reversal.

Balance Sheet (¥100M)

Item	FY2024	FY2025	Change
Cash & equivalents	279	242	(37)
Inventory	211	208	(2)
Total current assets	712	762	+50
PP&E	192	226	+33
Intangible assets	870	863	(7)
Total assets	1,775	1,852	+76
Interest-bearing debt	616	621	+5
Total equity	817	883	+66
Equity ratio	46.1%	47.7%	+1.6pts
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA	1.4x	1.7x	+0.3x

Balance sheet is clean but leverage ticked up. The ¥870B in intangible assets dominates — this is from Rigaku's LBO-origin structure (taken private by Carlyle, then re-IPO'd in October 2024). Goodwill is the elephant. Cash declined ¥37B as FCF got squeezed (see below) and the company returned capital via buybacks and dividends.

Cash Flow (¥100M)

Item	FY2024	FY2025	Change
Operating CF	146	93	(52)
Investing CF	(60)	(66)	(5)
Free Cash Flow	85	27	(57)
Financing CF	(24)	(65)	(41)
FX impact	13	1	(12)
Net cash change	74	(37)	(111)

FCF collapsed from ¥85B to ¥27B — a 68% drop. Operating CF dropped ¥52B despite higher revenue, likely from working capital absorption (receivables timing on the massive Q4) and lower profits. Financing outflows increased ¥41B from the share buyback (~¥40B) and higher dividends. This is the price of simultaneous investment + shareholder returns in a margin-compression year.

EBITDA Margin Bridge: FY2024 → FY2025

Starting point: 25.9% → Ending point: 23.0%

Factor	Impact
Semi revenue mix increase	+0.7%
Manufacturing COGS increase (capacity expansion)	(0.9)%
Parts & Service (EUV decline)	(0.8)%
Semi product/regional mix change	(0.6)%
R&D + SGA increase	(0.7)%
FX valuation losses	(0.5)%
Gross margin effect	(1.6)pts
SGA/other effect	(1.2)pts

Management's outlook on reversibility:

• Semi share of revenue: will continue increasing (positive for mix)
• Manufacturing cost: volume ramp to recover fixed cost absorption, plus pricing actions
• EUV impact: will become "lighter" going forward
• Semi product mix: new high-margin products to improve mix, also improve gross margin
• SGA: continue R&D investment but control non-R&D SGA growth

Shareholder Returns

Metric	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026E
EPS (¥)	60.44	50.19	55.27
DPS (¥)	6.0	18.8	19.0
Payout ratio	5.0%	37.5%	34.4%
Dividend policy	—	30% target payout	30% target payout

• FY2024's low payout was because the IPO was in October 2024 (only 2 months as a listed company)
• FY2025: ¥9.4 interim + ¥9.4 year-end = ¥18.8 total
• FY2026E: ¥9.5 + ¥9.5 = ¥19.0 (slight increase despite lower EPS base → higher payout ratio)
• Share buyback: Acquired 4,284,500 shares for ~¥4B in FY2025. All shares cancelled on January 28, 2026.
• Adjusted ROE: 20.9% (FY2024) → 14.9% (FY2025) → 15.0% (FY2026E). The drop reflects both lower earnings and the growing equity base.

AGM Proposals (Scheduled March 25, 2026)

Proposal	Item	Notes
#1	Election of 7 directors	5 outside/independent, 2 internal. 1 outside director retiring, 1 new appointment
#2	Election of 2 auditors	Strengthening to 4-member system (2 standing + 2 non-standing)
#3	Performance-linked stock comp for directors	Max ¥200M/year, max 100,000 shares
#4	Auditor compensation increase	To ¥80M from ¥50M (reflecting expanded 4-member system)

Nothing alarming here. Majority-independent board (5 of 7). Stock comp for directors aligns incentives. Auditor expansion suggests growing complexity/governance maturity for a recently re-listed company.

9. Red Flag Alerts

Red Flag	Detected?	Details
Auditor change	No	—
Financial restatement	No	—
Going concern	No	—
Material weakness in controls	No	—
New material risk factors	Monitor	Trump tariff/policy impact on US operations noted multiple times
Related-party transactions	No	Not flagged in presentation
Insider selling cluster	No	Buyback shows confidence
Executive departure	No	Management stable
Guidance cut or withdrawal	No	FY2026 guidance issued at higher revenue + margins
Restructuring / impairment	No	—
Shelf registration (dilution)	No	—
Delayed filing	No	—
"Strategic alternatives" language	No	—
FCF deterioration	Warning	FCF dropped 68% from ¥8.5B to ¥2.7B. Driven by working capital timing (massive Q4 shipments) and investment, not structural — but worth monitoring
Q3 margin collapse	Monitor	Q3 operating margin hit 4.5% (vs 16% in Q2). Extreme Q4-loading pattern is structural for this business but creates visibility risk

Severity Assessment:

• Warning: FCF compression is real but largely timing-driven (Q4-heavy shipment pattern). If FY2026 Q1-Q3 receivables convert normally, this should self-correct.
• Monitor: The extreme seasonality (Q3→Q4 revenue jump of +84%) creates visibility uncertainty. Management says FY2026 will normalize to ~+40% Q3→Q4 swing, reverting to FY2024 patterns.

10. Key Takeaways (Filings)

1. Revenue grew but profits disappointed. The +4% revenue growth masks a painful -17% net income decline. Manufacturing investment, R&D spend, EUV headwinds, and unfavorable mix all conspired against margins. Management chose growth investment over short-term margins — the right call if the semi opportunity materializes, but it hurt in FY2025.

2. Semi Process Control is the crown jewel. +19% growth, 29% operating margins, and a product roadmap targeting $1B SAM by 2030 with 50%+ market share ambition. The memory explosion (¥23B → ¥72B) and Asia ex-China surge (¥11B → ¥90B) are dramatic. This segment is now 30% of revenue but 42% of operating profit — and headed to 33% / 49% in FY2026.

3. FY2026 guidance signals margin recovery. Revenue to ¥101B (+7.2%), Adj. EBITDA margin back to 25.1% from 23.0%, driven by semi growth (+21%), new product mix improvement (+2.2pts GM), and operating leverage. The guidance assumes no rapid US academic recovery — conservative base.

4. Capital allocation is balanced but FCF-constrained. Buyback + cancellation shows shareholder-friendly intent, but FCF of ¥2.7B limits how much they can return without levering up. Net debt/EBITDA at 1.7x is manageable but trending up.

5. No red flags. Clean audit, stable management, majority-independent board. The biggest risk is execution on the FY2026 margin recovery — they need the new semi products to deliver on their mix improvement promise.

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Section B: Earnings Review

1. Earnings Snapshot

Item	Value
Company	Rigaku Holdings Corporation
Ticker	268A (TSE Prime Market)
Quarter reported	Q4 FY2025 (Oct-Dec 2025) / Full Year FY2025
Report date	February 13, 2026
Fiscal year end	December 31
Next earnings date (est.)	August 2026 (H1 FY2026)

Headline Numbers

Metric	FY2024	FY2025	YoY	FY2026E Guide
Revenue (¥100M)	906	941	+3.9%	1,010 (+7.2%)
Adj. EBITDA	234	217	(7.3)%	253 (+16.1%)
Adj. EBITDA Margin	25.9%	23.0%	(2.9)pts	25.1% (+2.1pts)
Adj. Operating Profit	209	186	(11.0)%	215 (+15.6%)
Adj. Net Income	153	127	(17.0)%	139 (+9.4%)
EPS (¥)	60.44	50.19	(17.0)%	55.27 (+10.1%)
DPS (¥)	6.0	18.8	+213%	19.0 (+1.1%)

No consensus estimates readily available for this recently re-listed company (IPO Oct 2024). vs. management's own forecast: revenue essentially met plan (missed by ¥1B), but Adj. EBITDA missed by ¥14B and Adj. Net Income missed by ¥9B. Top-line delivered, margins disappointed.

2. Segment-Level Breakdown

General Purpose Analytical Instruments

Metric (¥100M)	Q1'25	Q2'25	Q3'25	Q4'25	FY2025	FY2024	YoY
Revenue	92	89	83	139	404	413	(2.2)%
Operating Profit	12	13	4	31	62	71	(12.7)%
Operating Margin	13.6%	15.0%	5.4%	22.7%	15.4%	17.4%	(2.0)pts

Q4 was the hero quarter — ¥139B revenue (up from ¥83B in Q3, +67%). This extreme seasonality is normal for this business; Q4 FY2024 was similarly the biggest quarter at ¥133B. The Q3 margin at 5.4% looks alarming in isolation but it's a function of low revenue on a mostly fixed-cost base.

Full-year story: flat-to-down revenue in a tough market. Europe academic demand grew +27% (new materials, sustainability R&D), which partially offset Americas academic budget cuts and China's -23% decline (supplementary budget reversal). Life sciences end market was the growth pocket (+25% from pharma/chemicals).

FY2026E: Revenue ¥415B (+2.7%), operating margin 14.9%. Not expecting a rapid academic recovery. Planning real +4% growth by shifting resources toward industrial applications (semi/electronics components, EV battery materials) and gaining share overseas with Material Informatics capabilities. GM improvement from pricing actions and better mix → +1.8pts.

Semiconductor Process Control Equipment

Metric (¥100M)	Q1'25	Q2'25	Q3'25	Q4'25	FY2025	FY2024	YoY
Revenue	61	46	42	127	278	233	+19.3%
Operating Profit	16	8	0	56	80	74	+8.1%
Operating Margin	26.3%	17.9%	—	44.7%	29.0%	31.7%	(2.7)pts

This segment has the most extreme seasonality in the business — Q4 revenue was 3x Q3 revenue. Q4 operating margin hit 44.7%, which is what happens when you ship ¥127B on a largely fixed-cost base. Q3 was essentially breakeven at ¥42B revenue.

The demand mix shift is the headline: memory went from 10% of segment revenue in FY2024 to 26% in FY2025, driven by DRAM/NAND investment in Asia. Advanced logic/foundry shrank from 35% to 21% — not because demand disappeared but because it shifted geographically and by application. WFE grew strongly on next-gen development projects.

FY2026E: Revenue ¥333B (+20%, real +21% at constant FX), operating margin 31.4% (recovering from 29.0%). The growth drivers:

• New product revenue to reach 41% of segment (up from 24%), a 2.2x YoY increase in new product revenue
• AI semiconductor revenue ratio to reach 71% (up from 60%), with AI revenue growing 1.4x YoY
• Memory continues surging, logic rebounds on next-gen development, WFE stays high
• Japan/Americas/Asia all growing balanced; China also expected to increase
• New products (XTRAIA XD-3300, XTRAIA MF-3400, ONYX 3200, CD3200-T) drive mix improvement → ~2pts GM/operating margin expansion

Parts & Service

Metric (¥100M)	Q1'25	Q2'25	Q3'25	Q4'25	FY2025	FY2024	YoY
Revenue	51	65	61	80	259	259	flat
Operating Profit	5	15	11	18	51	61	(16.4)%
Operating Margin	11.2%	23.3%	19.0%	23.2%	19.8%	23.9%	(4.1)pts

Flat revenue, crushed margins. EUV multilayer mirror weakness drove ~¥10B revenue decline. Excluding EUV, the underlying business grew +4%. Service revenue (+8%) is the reliable recurring stream, growing on installed base expansion and price increases. But margin was hit by EUV drag, unfavorable US service margins (Trump tariff impacts), and mix deterioration.

FY2026E: Revenue ¥260B (flat), operating margin 18.3% (further slight decline). Management expects EUV headwinds to become "lighter" but isn't guiding a recovery yet.

Revenue Mix Evolution

Segment	FY2024 Rev%	FY2024 OP%	FY2025 Rev%	FY2025 OP%	FY2026E Rev%	FY2026E OP%
General Purpose	46%	34%	43%	32%	41%	29%
Semi Process Control	26%	36%	30%	42%	33%	49%
Parts & Service	28%	30%	27%	26%	26%	22%

The business is transforming in real time. Semi process control will generate nearly half of all operating profit by FY2026, up from barely a third two years ago. This is a higher-margin, faster-growing, more AI-levered business than the traditional analytical instruments side. The mix shift is the thesis.

3. Geographic Breakdown (Full Year, ¥100M)

Region	FY2024	FY2025	YoY	% of Total
Japan	243	274	+12.8%	29.1%
Americas	277	234	(15.5)%	24.9%
Europe	110	138	+25.5%	14.7%
Asia ex-China	124	168	+35.5%	17.9%
China	150	125	(16.7)%	13.3%
Total	906	941	+3.9%	100%

End Market	FY2024	FY2025	YoY
Semi & Electronics	324	333	+2.8%
Life Science	43	50	+16.3%
Other Industry	164	157	(4.3)%
Academia / Government	239	248	+3.8%
Service	135	151	+11.9%

Asia ex-China is the breakout geography. It went from 14% to 18% of revenue in one year, entirely driven by memory semiconductor investment. Europe's +25% was the positive surprise — academic/industrial R&D demand. Americas was the disappointment at -16%, with academic budget cuts and semi equipment demand shifting to Asia.

4. Margin Analysis

Metric	Q1'25	Q2'25	Q3'25	Q4'25	FY2025	FY2024	Trend
Gross Margin	55.8%	55.2%	51.9%	59.0%	56.1%	57.7%	declining (investing)
Operating Margin (IFRS)	13.8%	14.3%	4.5%	29.2%	17.7%	20.3%	declining
Adj. EBITDA Margin	19.6%	20.0%	11.7%	33.0%	23.0%	25.9%	declining
Adj. Net Margin	11.0%	10.7%	4.5%	21.5%	13.5%	17.0%	declining

Every margin metric declined. But the Q4 numbers show what happens when revenue shows up — 29.2% operating margin, 33.0% EBITDA margin. The operating leverage in this business is extreme. The problem in FY2025 wasn't the margin structure — it was Q1-Q3 revenue underperformance hitting a largely fixed cost base.

Management's FY2026 EBITDA bridge shows +2.2pts gross margin improvement (from semi new products, pricing, volume leverage) offset partially by -0.2pts from continued SGA investment. Net effect: 23.0% → 25.1%.

5. Cash Flow & Balance Sheet

Metric (¥100M)	FY2024	FY2025	Change
Operating CF	146	93	(52)
Capex	(60)	(66)	(5)
Free Cash Flow	85	27	(57)
Cash & equiv.	279	242	(37)
Interest-bearing debt	616	621	+5
Net debt	337	379	+42
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA	1.4x	1.7x	+0.3x
Share buybacks	—	~40	—
Dividends paid	~14	~43	—

FCF of ¥2.7B is thin for a company of this size. The operating CF weakness likely reflects receivables buildup from the massive Q4 (¥346B revenue in one quarter versus ¥187B in Q3). If collection patterns are normal, this should convert in Q1 FY2026. But it does mean Rigaku can't simultaneously invest heavily, pay dividends, and do buybacks without eating into cash — net debt/EBITDA at 1.7x is fine but headed the wrong direction.

6. Guidance

FY2026 Full Year Guidance

Metric	FY2025 Actual	FY2026E Guide	Change	Key Assumption
Revenue	¥94.1B	¥101.0B	+7.2%	+9% at constant FX
Adj. EBITDA	¥21.7B	¥25.3B	+16.1%	GM expansion from new products
Adj. EBITDA Margin	23.0%	25.1%	+2.1pts
Adj. Operating Profit	¥18.6B	¥21.5B	+15.6%
Adj. Operating Margin	19.8%	21.3%	+1.5pts
Adj. Net Income	¥12.7B	¥13.9B	+9.4%
Adj. Net Margin	13.5%	13.8%	+0.3pts
EPS (¥)	50.19	55.27	+10.1%
DPS (¥)	18.8	19.0	+1.1%	34.4% payout
Adj. ROE	14.9%	15.0%	+0.1pts
R&D / Revenue	7.8%	8.5%	+0.7pts	Increasing R&D investment
Capex / Revenue	7.1%	7.7%	+0.6pts	Capacity expansion continues
Headcount	2,226	2,351	+125 people
JPY/USD	149.8	145.0	Stronger yen assumed
JPY/EUR	169.5	165.0	Stronger yen assumed

Assessment: The guide looks achievable but not sandbagged. They're guiding for a profit recovery on the back of semi growth and new product mix improvement, while explicitly not assuming a US academic recovery. The constant-FX revenue growth of +9% is in line with their medium-term plan. The risk is that they're still guiding for higher R&D spend (+16%) and capex (+17%), which means margin recovery depends on the semi revenue materializing as planned.

FX sensitivity: ¥1 move vs USD = ~¥2B revenue, ~¥0.4B operating profit. They're assuming ¥145 (vs spot ~¥149) — slightly conservative, which gives some cushion.

Segment Guidance

Segment	FY2025 Revenue	FY2026E Revenue	Growth	FY2026E OP Margin
General Purpose	404	415	+2.7%	14.9%
Semi Process Control	278	333	+19.8%	31.4%
Parts & Service	259	260	+0.4%	18.3%
Consolidated	941	1,010	+7.3%	19.3%

Quarterly Revenue Phasing (FY2026E)

Management expects:

• H1 comparable to prior year (low start, gradual build)
• H2 expands significantly — YoY +14%
• Q4 remains the peak but Q3→Q4 swing normalizes to ~+40% range (vs +84% in FY2025)
• Q2 and Q3 to exceed prior year levels

This means Q1 FY2026 will likely look weak — don't panic if it does. The business has inherent Q4 loading.

7. Management Commentary Highlights

Tone Assessment

• Overall tone: Cautiously Confident
• Compared to prior: More positive — FY2025 was the investment trough, FY2026 is the harvest

Key Themes from the Presentation

On Semi Process Control demand:

• Demand shift from mass production to cutting-edge R&D is firmly captured
• AI semiconductor demand is "robust" — driving both new product adoption and installed base growth
• JEP (Joint Evaluation Program) count: 14 programs in FY2025 (5 completed), 12 currently active with more planned
• "New product revenue will reach 41% of segment revenue, up from 24%" — this is the margin expansion engine

On General Purpose challenges:

• "Not assuming rapid US academic recovery" — realistic, not hoping for a rescue
• Strategy shift: absorb academic decline by expanding industrial applications (semi components, batteries, pharma)
• Europe share gains in new materials/sustainability R&D are "structural, not cyclical"

On margin recovery:

• "GM expansion will absorb R&D and SGA increases" — the plan is to spend more on R&D (+16%) but grow revenue faster
• New semi products have higher gross margins → mix improvement is the primary margin driver
• Manufacturing capacity utilization to improve with volume ramp → better fixed cost absorption

8. KPIs & Operating Metrics

KPI	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026E	Trend
Semi % of revenue	26%	30%	33%	accelerating
Semi % of operating profit	36%	42%	49%	accelerating
New product % of semi revenue	—	24%	41%	accelerating
AI semi revenue ratio	—	60%	71%	accelerating
Semi operating margin	31.7%	29.0%	31.4%	recovering
JEP programs (active)	—	14 (5 done)	12+	expanding
R&D / Revenue	7.5%	7.8%	8.5%	increasing (intentional)
Headcount	—	2,226	2,351	+5.6% growth
Net Debt / EBITDA	1.4x	1.7x	—	watch

The AI semi revenue ratio going from 60% → 71% is the single most important KPI. It validates the thesis that Rigaku's X-ray metrology tools are becoming mission-critical for advanced node semiconductor manufacturing.

9. Post-Earnings Price Reaction

Metric	Value
Report date	Feb 13, 2026
90-day return (per Simply Wall St)	+54.72%
1-year TSR	+23.70%
Recent P/E	27.1x (per Simply Wall St, ¥1,394)
SWS Fair P/E	21.3x
DCF Fair Value	¥1,372
Industry avg P/E (JP Electronic)	16.9x

The stock has rallied significantly post-earnings — 90-day return of +55% suggests the market is buying the FY2026 margin recovery narrative and the AI semi growth story. At 27x earnings it's pricing in meaningful growth — above both industry average (17x) and estimated fair P/E (21x).

10. Earnings Scorecard

Category	Grade	Notes
Revenue vs. plan	B	Met forecast (-¥1B miss on ¥941B is rounding error)
Profitability vs. plan	C	Adj. EBITDA missed by ¥14B, net income by ¥9B. Margin compression real
Semi segment	A	+19% growth, massive memory/Asia expansion, new product traction
General Purpose	C+	Managed -2% in a tough market, but margin erosion concerning
Parts & Service	C-	Flat revenue, -4pts margin. EUV drag unresolved
Cash flow / balance sheet	C	FCF dropped 68%. Net debt/EBITDA rising. Manageable but not comfortable
Guidance quality	B+	FY2026 guide looks credible — conservative FX, no academic recovery assumed
Shareholder returns	B	Buyback + cancellation is good; dividend growing. But constrained by FCF
Management execution	B	Revenue delivered, margins disappointed, but investment rationale is clear
Overall Grade	B-	Investment year — revenue OK, margins down, but FY2026 setup looks promising

11. Investment Implications

Does this quarter change the investment thesis? No — it confirms it. Rigaku is transforming from a general-purpose analytical instruments company into an AI semiconductor metrology platform. The semi segment's growth trajectory (+19% → +21%), new product pipeline (41% new product ratio, 7+ products in development/ramp), and expanding SAM ($1B by 2030) are the thesis. FY2025 was the investment trough — margins got hit as they built capacity, invested in R&D, and dealt with EUV/academic headwinds simultaneously.

Single most important takeaway: The new product ramp in semi process control is real. 24% → 41% new product revenue share, 2.2x YoY growth, 6 customer certifications, and a $1B SAM target by 2030 with 50%+ share ambition. If these products deliver (XTRAIA XD-3300, MF-3400, ONYX 3200, CD3200-T), the margin expansion writes itself.

What to watch heading into next quarter (H1 FY2026):

1. Q1 revenue level — management warned it starts low. Don't panic if Q1 looks weak
2. Semi process control order pipeline / JEP conversions
3. General Purpose: does the US academic market stabilize or deteriorate further?
4. ONYX 3200 customer reception (shipped to 2 logic customers in Q1) — this is a new-market product
5. FCF recovery — Q4 receivables should convert in Q1

Action: HOLD → ADD on weakness. The valuation at 27x isn't cheap, but the growth vector is real. FY2025 was the margin trough. If FY2026 delivers 25%+ EBITDA margins on ¥101B revenue, the stock deserves a premium. The risk is Q1-Q3 seasonality spooking the market before the Q4 payoff arrives.

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Product Roadmap Summary (Semi Process Control — Critical Reference)

Product	Application	Stage (2026)	Target SAM	Key Update
XTRAIA CD-3200G	GAA/CFET 3D structure (Logic)	Development	$100M+ (new market)	New model for GAA/CFET, Q1'27 shipment target
XTRAIA XD (HR-XRD)	High-k/Metal Gate thin film (Logic+Memory)	Full production starting	$100M (>70% share)	6 customer certifications, 3 JEP continuing
XTRAIA MF-3400 (GEN4)	Light element thin film (Logic+Memory)	Full production starting	$200M (>70% share)	GEN4 shipments started. Major logic+memory adoption
ONYX 3200	Light element AI measurement	JEP starting	$100M+ (>50% share, new market)	Shipped to 2 logic customers Q1, memory expansion planned
XTRAIA CD-3200T (T-SAXS)	DRAM/NAND HAR measurement (Memory)	Full production starting → ramp	$100M (>50% share)	Adopted by major memory + WFE companies. 3D DRAM version (3300T) in development
AXI (Advanced X-ray Inspection)	HBM/CoWoS/TSV packaging inspection	Beta demo Q3'26	$300M (>30% share)	Alpha machine demo ongoing
Hybrid Metrology (T-SAXS + optical)	3D structure analysis (Logic+Memory)	Full production starting	$100M+ (new market)	Co-development with optical partners

Total estimated SAM by 2030: ~$1 billion Rigaku target share: 50%+ Goal: ¥100B revenue from existing + new products combined by 2030

This roadmap is the entire bull case. Rigaku is positioning itself as the X-ray metrology standard for sub-2nm logic, 3D DRAM, HBM packaging, and next-gen memory — all the places where traditional optical metrology hits physical limits.

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Sources: Rigaku Holdings IR, TDnet FY2025 Results, Simply Wall St, TipRanks, StockAnalysis

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Topics

• japan-semi