This is a 3-day delta refresh of the 2026-05-12 deep-dive, requested as part of the Japanese semi supply chain GAA-ramp swarm. The prior deep-dive (≈58k words across 17 sections) stands as the analytical scaffold.
This is a 3-day refresh of [[4062-profile]] 2026-05-12.
The corporate overview, JV/partner map, customer concentration, asset
footprint, segment structure, governance, and historical financial
snapshot are unchanged and not repeated in depth — the
prior entry stands. What this refresh updates:
The rest of the profile preserves prior content and refreshes the financial snapshot only.
No new SA mirror posts on 4062, Ibiden, or ABF substrates posted between 2026-05-12 and 2026-05-15. Prior SA framing carries forward (sole-supplier 2023 → Unimicron share-loss 2024 → JEDEC-exceeding package size 2025). See prior entry for full SA cross-check table.
Unchanged from [[4062-profile]] 2026-05-12 §1. Headlines
preserved:
Unchanged from prior entry §2. Top customers: Nvidia (~15-25%, Hopper sole / Blackwell majority / Vera Rubin qualified), Intel (~20-25%, server CPU multi-decade), AMD (~10-15%), hyperscalers AWS/GOOGL/MSFT/Meta combined ~10-15%, Apple/Marvell/Broadcom/MediaTek long tail ~5-10%, diesel DPF automotive ~20% (Cummins, Daimler Truck, Stellantis).
Concentration flag carries forward — Nvidia + Intel combined approaching ~50% of electronics revenue and ~35-40% of group revenue. Single-customer risk is real but partly offset by the Unimicron dual-sourcing dynamic flagged by SA (which protects against Nvidia squeezing prices via take-or-pay leverage — Ibiden can substitute Nvidia volume into Rubin-tier supply at richer pricing).
Unchanged. Core thesis: AI accelerator package area crossed 5,625mm² (B200) → 8,100mm² (Vera Rubin), and B300 NVL16 pushes beyond the JEDEC 120×120mm package size envelope — the regime where Ibiden’s process moat (low warpage at large panels, multi-build-up dielectric ladder, embedded passives, panel-level yield) is structurally widest. Glass core substrate (Intel GlassCore, 2027-2030 commercial) is the next bridge and Ibiden is the lead development partner.
Unchanged from prior entry §4. Headlines: - President / CEO: Koji Kawashima (since June 2017, prior CTO/COO; substrate-engineering lifer) - CFO: Takeshi Aoyama - Chairman: Takeshi Ozawa (transitioned from CEO role) - Board ~11 directors, ~4 outside (independent) — typical Japanese TSE Prime governance, not best-in-class on independence ratio but compliant with the revised Corporate Governance Code - Insider ownership low (sub-2% combined directors + ESOP) — typical Japanese listed - No 13D-style activist position disclosed; no recent material insider transactions in EDINET - Compensation reform pending: METI / TSE pushing TSE Prime listeds toward equity-linked compensation; Ibiden’s pay structure remains mostly cash-base + cash-bonus per FY3/25 securities report
Unchanged. Top 5 organic ABF substrate makers globally: Ibiden, Unimicron, Shinko Electric (renamed Resonatec post-Toshiba spin), Nan Ya PCB, Kinsus — with AT&S as the European challenger, mainly Intel-aligned. Ibiden remains #1 by AI/data-center mix and process moat (warpage management at large panels, build-up cycle yield, embedded passives). Unimicron is the credible #2 and has been the share-taker at Blackwell GPU substrate, per SA 2024.
Valuation (as of 2026-05-15 close)
| Metric | Value | Δ vs 2026-05-12 |
|---|---|---|
| Spot | JPY 16,065 | –2.9% |
| Market cap | JPY 4.49 tn (USD ~29.9 bn) | –2.8% |
| Enterprise value | JPY 4.64 tn | slightly higher — net cash drawdown on capex |
| P/E (TTM) | 74.6x | down from ~77x |
| P/E (Fwd, FY3/27E) | 52.0x | down from ~54x |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | ~26-28x | –1 turn |
| 52-week range | JPY 2,477 – JPY 18,365 | new high JPY 18,365 (printed May 12-14 window) |
| Dividend yield | 0.24% | unchanged (token dividend, capex-prioritised) |
| Beta (5Y, JPY) | 1.56 | unchanged |
| Shares out | 279.2M | unchanged |
| Yfinance consensus PT | JPY 10,441 | STALE — sell-side has not re-rated targets; do not anchor |
Income statement & margins — unchanged from prior entry §6 (no new earnings between May 12 and May 15). Latest reported quarter is FY3/26 Q4 disclosed late April 2026. Snapshot retained:
| Metric | FY3/24 (FY-2) | FY3/25 (FY-1) | FY3/26 (FY0, latest) | FY3/27E (FY+1E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (JPY B) | 369 | 369 | ~495 (+34%) | ~585 (+18%) |
| Operating margin % | ~14 | ~14 | ~17-18 | ~19-21 |
| Net income (JPY B) | ~35 | 33.7 | ~58 | ~80 |
| EPS (JPY) | ~125 | 121 | ~209 | ~287 |
| FCF (JPY B) | negative | –79.6 | turns positive 2H FY3/26 | clearly positive |
(Consensus from 17-broker average per QUICK / Bloomberg compile as of late April; spread is wide.)
Unchanged from prior entry §7. Core drivers: Vera Rubin / Rubin Ultra substrate sourcing (Q3/4 2026 confirmation watch), Intel Granite Rapids / GlassCore qualification timeline, hyperscaler custom-silicon ramp (Trainium 2, TPU v6/v7, MAIA 200, Axion 2), Oono phase 2 commissioning. No new awards or contract disclosures in the 3-day window.
Unchanged. Top 5 risks: (1) Customer concentration (Nvidia + Intel ~50% of electronics), (2) Dual-sourcing structural acceleration to Unimicron, (3) Capex overrun / Oono phase 2 commissioning execution, (4) JPY / USD FX (Ibiden books in JPY, sells in USD-tied pricing — strong yen would compress reported margins), (5) Glass core substrate transition execution — being the leader on organic ABF does not automatically translate.
Dilution risk: low. No ATM, no shelf, no convertible overhang. The capex is self-funded (cash on hand + operating cash flow + bank facility).
Unchanged from prior entry §10. Top holders (Japan structure): - Master Trust Bank of Japan (Trust Bank for Nippon Life and institutional clients) ~12-15% - Custody Bank of Japan (custody trust) ~5-8% - Toyota / Toyota-affiliated entities small position - Foreign institutionals (BlackRock, Vanguard, JPM, Fidelity via passive + active sleeves) combined ~20-25% - Self-held / ESOP ~2-3% - Insider sub-2% combined
Short interest data not cleanly disclosed for TSE listeds at US-equivalent granularity; Japan Securities Lending data shows modest stock-borrow demand, no extreme short setup. Analyst coverage: ~17 brokers (Nomura, Daiwa, SMBC Nikko, Mizuho, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, JPM, Citi, Jefferies, CLSA, Macquarie, BofA, Bernstein, Citic-CLSA, Mitsubishi UFJ, Tokai Tokyo) — consensus buy-weighted but with target dispersion (JPY 10-20k range). The JPY 10,441 yfinance mean is dragged down by sell-side analysts who have not raised targets post the AI re-rating.
~/claude/output/profile/4062-profile.md~/Dropbox/Wafflebun/KB/wiki/4062/4062-profile.md
(overwrites 2026-05-12 entry via post-Write hook)This profile is a 3-day delta refresh on an entry already in
KB/inv-q.md “Own Research to Review” → no new entry needed;
the existing inv-q line will be updated by the sweep job on next
Sunday’s run.
This is a 3-day delta refresh of the 2026-05-12 deep-dive, requested as part of the Japanese semi supply chain GAA-ramp swarm. The prior deep-dive (≈58k words across 17 sections) stands as the analytical scaffold. This refresh adds only what changed in 72 hours and what surfaces from the parallel-swarm context — it does not repeat the substrate first-principles, segment walkthrough, value chain map, customer table, or governance forensics already in the prior entry.
Price / valuation. JPY 16,550 → JPY 16,065 (–2.9%). The intraday high of JPY 18,365 printed in the May 12-14 window before fading — a ~12.5% drawdown from the all-time-high in two sessions on no specific news. Mkt cap JPY 4.49tn vs 4.62tn at last write. TTM P/E 74.6x (vs ~77x), fwd P/E (FY3/27E) 52.0x (vs ~54x). EV/EBITDA TTM ~26-28x. The recompression is modest and does not reset the consensus-ahead problem; base-case DCF target (FY3/27 P/E 50x on JPY 287 EPS) remains JPY 14,350, ~–11% from current spot vs –13% at prior write — stock got fractionally less expensive, decision frame is unchanged.
Yfinance consensus PT is JPY 10,441 — STALE and not a real consensus. This is a data-quality flag, not a signal: sell-side targets have not been re-rated in line with the 6.7x TTM run, so the screener-pulled average is anchored to pre-re-rating estimates. Bloomberg / QUICK consensus per house notes circulates JPY 14-18k range. Do not anchor on the JPY 10.4k figure for any sizing or signal work. Worth verifying against the real consensus number on next earnings cycle.
No new IR disclosure. Nothing on the IR page, no TDnet release, no insider EDINET filing change, no shareholder structure update in the window. The next earnings print is FY3/27 Q1 — late July / early August 2026 — and there is no scheduled IR event in the May 15-31 window.
No new SA mirror post. SA mirror at
~/Dropbox/Wafflebun/KB/wiki/semianalysis/ has no fresh
material on 4062, Ibiden, or ABF substrate posted between May 12 and May
15. Prior SA framing carries (sole-supplier 2023 → Unimicron share-loss
2024 → JEDEC-exceeding package size 2025).
Parallel-swarm context. This refresh runs alongside swarm research on Mitsui Kinzoku (5706), Ajinomoto (2802 / ABF resin), MEC (4971 / CZ adhesion chemistry), Shinko Electric (6967 → renamed Resonatec), and Victory Giant (002476.SZ / AI-server PCB). All sit upstream or peer to 4062. Cross-references where relevant — but no swarm output should change the Ibiden-specific thesis; the upstream node primers are already absorbed into the prior deep-dive.
Thesis (unchanged). Ibiden is the global leader in high-end ABF / FCBGA IC substrate at the precise moment AI accelerator package areas crossed organic substrate’s prior physical comfort zone — exactly the regime where Ibiden’s process moat is structurally widest. The 17-broker consensus is now baking in FY3/26 +34% rev → FY3/27 +18% rev with EPS doubling FY3/25 → FY3/27E. The same R&D ladder also positions Ibiden as Intel’s preferred glass-core substrate development partner for 2027-2030 commercial. What is consensus is the trajectory; what is contested is the multiple.
Current price: JPY 16,065 (–3% in 3 sessions) Market cap: JPY 4.49 tn (~USD 29.9 bn) Enterprise value: JPY 4.64 tn Target price (base case, FY3/27 P/E 50x on JPY 287 EPS): JPY 14,350 — –11% from spot. Bull case (60x): JPY 17,200. Bear case (35x): JPY 10,050. Expected return (12-18 month horizon, base case): –11% — the stock is still consensus-ahead, the 3-day pullback closed only ~2pts of the gap. Conviction: Medium — high quality of business + high quality of trajectory, but valuation has not reset enough to make this an entry-priced quality compounder.
Recommendation (unchanged): Quality watchlist, not entry-priced. Wait for either (a) sell-side target re-rating (still pending — JPY 10k mean confirms this hasn’t happened yet), (b) a 15-25% pullback that resets multiples to high-30s forward P/E, or (c) Rubin / Rubin Ultra sourcing confirmation that defends share against Unimicron.
Note on the 52-week high pullback. JPY 18,365 → JPY 16,065 is a ~12.5% drawdown in 2 sessions on no fundamental news. Possible drivers: (i) Japanese semi sector profit-taking after a multi-month run, (ii) buyer exhaustion at round-number resistance, (iii) yen FX rebound trimming foreign-buyer positioning, (iv) glass-core risk-off as the substrate primer / Cu-wiring primer dropped and dual-source risk became more vivid. This is mechanical and worth letting play out — not a thesis-relevant move.
The following sections are unchanged and not
re-drafted. Refer to [[4062-deep-dive]] 2026-05-12:
[[4062-mgmt-dd]] 2026-05-12 (refreshed today as
2026-05-15)These remain accurate as of 2026-05-15.
| Metric | Value (2026-05-15) | Value (2026-05-12) | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap | JPY 4.49 tn | JPY 4.62 tn | –2.8% |
| Enterprise value | JPY 4.64 tn | JPY 4.28 tn | +8.4% (capex drawdown — see note) |
| P/E (TTM) | 74.6x | ~77x | –3 turns |
| Fwd P/E (FY3/27E) | 52.0x | ~54x | –2 turns |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | ~26-28x | ~27-29x | –1 turn |
| P/FCF (LTM) | n/a (FCF negative) | n/a | unchanged |
| EV/Revenue (TTM) | ~9-10x | ~9-10x | unchanged |
| FCF yield | negative | negative | unchanged — Oono phase 2 capex still flowing |
| Dividend yield | 0.24% | 0.24% | unchanged |
| 52-week range | JPY 2,477 – JPY 18,365 | JPY 2,477 – JPY ~17,800 | new ATH printed |
| Beta (5Y, JPY) | 1.56 | ~1.5-1.6 | unchanged |
| Shares out | 279.2M | ~278M | minor |
Note on EV. The EV move from JPY 4.28tn → JPY 4.64tn at lower mkt cap is consistent with net cash drawdown of ~JPY 350-400B over the 3-day window — possibly capex tranche payment to Oono phase 2 contractors, possibly bank facility drawdown for working capital. Worth flagging for the next earnings reconciliation but not actionable today.
Income statement, cash flow, balance sheet, ROIC, incremental margins — unchanged from prior entry. No new earnings between May 12 and May 15. FY3/26 actuals (late April 2026 print) and FY3/27 consensus retained.
Refer to prior deep-dive §12 (8-quarter incremental GM / incremental EBIT analysis showing operating leverage at the Electronics-segment level) and §13 (three-scenario forward P/E target framework: bear 35x → JPY 10,050; base 50x → JPY 14,350; bull 60x → JPY 17,200 on FY3/27E EPS of JPY 287). At spot JPY 16,065 the stock is between base and bull but closer to bull — risk-reward is asymmetric to the downside on multiple compression risk.
(Catalyst list otherwise unchanged from prior entry.)
No new contract awards or capacity commitments disclosed in the 72-hour window.
Risk hierarchy unchanged from prior entry, but two refinements based on the 3-day window:
Valuation / consensus-ahead risk — STILL THE NUMBER ONE RISK. Stock is 12.5% off ATH on no news; this signals the marginal buyer is becoming sensitive to multiple. A real consensus mark in the JPY 14-18k range (from current ~JPY 10k stale screener mean) is what the bull case needs to anchor; until sell-side actually re-rates, the stock is structurally exposed to multiple compression on any minor disappointment. Likelihood: Medium-High in 3-6 months. Existing mitigant: trajectory still intact. Mgmt de-risk plan: cannot directly de-risk multiple — only operational delivery. Can it be closed? No — multiple risk is structurally not closeable except through sell-side update cycles and continued execution.
Dual-source structural acceleration — confirmed by parallel swarm context. Mitsui Kinzoku (5706) primer flagged that Unimicron and AT&S are pulling MicroThin Cu foil volume that previously went exclusively to Ibiden; this implies the upstream Cu-foil supply pool is now allocated across more substrate makers, weakening Ibiden’s de facto exclusivity at flagship Cu foil specs. Pace of share loss to Unimicron in Rubin / Rubin Ultra sourcing is the single most important fundamental risk to monitor. Likelihood: Medium-High over 12-24 months. Closeable? Partially — Ibiden can defend at glass-core / next-gen but cannot reverse organic ABF share loss.
3-5. Capex execution at Oono phase 2, FX, glass core transition — unchanged from prior entry.
Dilution risk: still low. No ATM, no shelf, no convertible. Capex is self-funded — partly with cash, partly bank facility, no equity overhang.
Key-person risk: unchanged. Kawashima (CEO) tenure secure, no succession event flagged in window.
No 13-F-equivalent or EDINET ownership change in the 3-day window. Top holders unchanged (Master Trust Bank, Custody Bank, foreign institutionals via passive sleeves). Refer to prior entry §16.
Analyst PT update: the JPY 10,441 yfinance mean is not the real consensus. The sell-side has not re-rated targets in line with the 6.7x TTM run. Real consensus per QUICK / Bloomberg is JPY 14-18k spread. Watch for Nomura, Daiwa, SMBC Nikko, Goldman, Morgan Stanley target hikes in the July earnings window — this is what the bull case is implicitly waiting for.
[[4062-deep-dive]] 2026-05-12
(analytical scaffold)[[packaging-glass-substrate-primer]]
2026-05-03[[cu-wiring-resin-sub-layer-primer]]
2026-05-12~/Dropbox/Wafflebun/KB/wiki/semianalysis/
— no May 2026 posts on 4062STF Research (@stfbutnou, ★★ paid sub in Pink’s directory) has covered Ibiden indirectly — never as a standalone write-up, but as a recurring named entity in posts about adjacent Japanese semi chemistry / substrate-stack names. Four STF posts intersect with the 4062 thesis; the most useful is the Uyemura piece (May 11, 2026), which is the only one fully accessible at Pink’s Paid tier.
URL: https://stfbutnou.substack.com/p/uyemura-another-invisible-beneficiary
The piece is structurally a write-up of C. Uyemura (4966 JP) — the dominant ENEPIG final-pad surface treatment chemistry maker. Ibiden appears in three load-bearing ways:
Ibiden is named in the canonical AI substrate value-chain framing. STF opens with: “Nvidia designs the GPU, TSMC manufactures it, TSMC or ASE packages it onto an ABF substrate, and Ibiden or Unimicron makes that substrate. The chemical company that finishes the substrate’s copper pads with a three-layer coating rarely appears in anyone’s supply chain diagram.” This is the consensus Japan-side framing of where Ibiden sits — fully consistent with prior deep-dive §5.
STF’s Japan-substrate market share split is explicit. They estimate Uyemura’s ENEPIG share is “approximately 50-55% in Japan (Ibiden, Shinko Electric)” vs “approximately 70% in Taiwan.” This implies the Japan substrate ecosystem (Ibiden + Shinko/Resonatec) is more chemistry-source-diversified than Taiwan, where Uyemura is dominant. Read this as: Ibiden has more chemistry-supplier optionality than the consensus assumes — which marginally reduces the Uyemura-related single-source upstream risk that the prior deep-dive §5 flagged. Minor delta to the upstream bottleneck check.
STF’s glass-core read is directly relevant to the Ibiden thesis — and it’s nuanced in a way that should inform the bull/bear framing on glass-core transition risk. STF writes: “Glass replaces the organic core material: the resin that currently gives the substrate its mechanical structure. Glass does not replace the copper redistribution layers built on top of the core. Glass does not replace the copper bond pads at the surface.” And then: “Absolics, the SKC-Applied Materials joint venture, shipped volume samples to AMD for the MI400 series as of January 2026, per industry reports. The first commercial AI accelerators using glass core substrates are plausibly a 2026 or 2027 event for the highest-end server applications.”
Implication for the Ibiden thesis. STF is implicitly pointing to a faster glass-core timeline than the prior deep-dive assumed. Prior entry said “Intel GlassCore commercial 2027-2030”; STF is flagging Absolics→AMD MI400 volume samples in January 2026, with commercial 2026-2027. If Absolics-Applied Materials (with AMD as launch customer) lands a commercial glass-core substrate node 12-24 months ahead of Ibiden’s organic ABF transition pace, the “Ibiden is the bridge to glass core” thesis weakens — because the bridge is being built by Absolics (SKC/Applied Materials JV) rather than by Ibiden. This is the single most thesis-relevant new datapoint from STF coverage. Worth flagging in the next 4062-mgmt-dd / 4062-deep-dive update cycle: track AMD MI400 substrate sourcing announcements specifically.
URL: https://stfbutnou.substack.com/p/the-substrate-wars-reality-check
Found in STF’s archive scrape but the post body did not load cleanly in this session (Substack server returned a different post). The title alone is signal — STF wrote a dedicated “Substrate Wars” piece with an investor’s playbook, which is almost certainly the single most Ibiden-relevant STF post and should be fully read in a future swarm refresh. Action item: re-fetch in next session. Pink’s Paid tier should grant access (most STF posts other than Founding Member-tier are accessible).
URL: https://stfbutnou.substack.com/p/ai-supply-chain-shortage-intensifying
This is Founding Member tier only — Pink’s current Paid tier does not grant access. Preview text only: “AI infrastructure capex cycle is turning out to be longer and more powerful than most anticipated… non-linear on the demand side and structurally constrained on the supply side… covers the latest upstream demand-supply situation across CCL, PCB, drill bits, glass fiber cloth, and HVLP copper foil.” No substrate-specific content visible in preview. If Pink upgrades to Founding Member, this is the next post to read for the cross-sector AI capex framing.
URL: https://stfbutnou.substack.com/p/kitagawa-seiki-hidden-champion-pressing
Kitagawa Seiki makes vacuum-press equipment used in substrate
lamination (referenced in Pink’s existing
[[ai-server-pcb-primer]] 2026-05-03 in the vacuum-press
supplier line). A dedicated STF write-up almost certainly references
Ibiden as a customer or end-user. Fetch failed in this session (opencli
browser timeout). Action item: re-fetch in next
session.
Referenced inside the Uyemura post via Substack restack. STF’s framing of “the last cheap AI stock in the Japanese rally” implies they did NOT pick Ibiden — because at the time of that March 2026 write (after Ibiden had already run ~5x TTM), Ibiden was no longer “cheap.” Whatever STF picked instead would be a different name in the substrate / PCB / chemistry stack. Useful indirect signal: STF’s framing reinforces the deep-dive’s WATCH (not BUY) verdict at JPY 16k — Ibiden is no longer the asymmetric AI capex value play.
STF treats Ibiden as the consensus center of the AI substrate value chain — they don’t dispute Ibiden’s franchise, but they consistently route their actual stock picks around Ibiden (Uyemura, MEC, Taiyo, Kitagawa Seiki, Furuya, Maruwa) rather than at Ibiden itself. The implicit message: Ibiden’s quality is real, the price has caught up, the alpha now sits in the under-covered Japanese chemistry / equipment names that feed Ibiden. This is exactly the dynamic the prior deep-dive’s WATCH verdict captures.
One material delta to flag back to the next update cycle: STF’s January-2026 Absolics→AMD MI400 datapoint suggests glass-core substrate commercialisation may be 12-24 months ahead of the prior deep-dive’s 2027-2030 timeline, and the launch customer may be AMD via Absolics rather than Intel via Ibiden. If this proves out, Ibiden’s “bridge to glass core” optionality weakens materially. Watch AMD MI400 substrate sourcing announcements in 2H 2026.
This is a 3-day delta refresh of the 2026-05-12 mgmt-dd. The full forensic scan — leadership profiles, board composition, golden parachute math, related-party EDINET search, capital allocation grade — is in the prior entry. Nothing material has changed in the 72-hour window. This refresh confirms that and notes the data points that would update if they materialised.
Japan-listed governance forensics caveat carries from prior entry: TSE Prime issuer disclosure is materially less granular than US SEC DEF 14A. EDINET (Japan’s equivalent of EDGAR) provides annual securities reports (有価証券報告書) and quarterly reports but does not require Form-4-equivalent same-day insider transaction filings. 10b5-1-equivalent plans do not exist in Japanese securities law. Related-party transaction disclosures exist but are less itemised than US Item 13. Conclusion: forensic depth on Ibiden is structurally capped vs. a US listed company — not because Ibiden is hiding, but because the disclosure regime is different. Caveat is unchanged from prior entry.
No new SA mirror posts in window. No SA piece has ever covered Ibiden management specifically (SA tends to focus on technology and product, not corporate governance). Carry prior framing.
The following sections are unchanged and not
redrafted. See [[4062-mgmt-dd]] 2026-05-12:
No insider transactions disclosed in EDINET window. Checked Ibiden EDINET filings page; nothing posted between May 12 and May 15. The next scheduled disclosure event is FY3/27 Q1 earnings late July / early August 2026.
No board change, no executive change, no related-party transaction announcement. Ibiden’s IR + TDnet feed has been silent on governance matters in the window. This is the expected state for a Japanese listed at this point in the fiscal calendar.
No new 10b5-1-equivalent plan filing. Not applicable in Japan; no equivalent disclosure regime.
No new compensation-related disclosure. The FY3/25 annual securities report covers comp through FY3/25; next refresh is the FY3/26 ASR scheduled for June 2026 (post the FY3/26 AGM). That will be the next material window for compensation forensics.
No new shareholder proposal or activist disclosure. No 13D-equivalent or large-block-holder change disclosed in window.
FY3/26 Annual Securities Report (有価証券報告書) — expected June 2026. This is the next material governance read. Will include: updated NEO comp tables, related-party transaction summary, beneficial owner list update, board attendance records, audit firm tenure. Worth running a full forensic re-read when this drops.
FY3/26 AGM (annual general meeting) — late June 2026. Shareholder proposals (if any) and vote outcomes will be disclosed. Watch for any activist or minority-shareholder push on capital allocation, equity-linked comp, or board independence ratio.
Performance grant disclosure — if Ibiden moves toward more equity-linked NEO comp in the FY3/26 ASR, the hurdle-vs-LT-model analysis (§5a in the skill template) becomes runnable. Today it’s not because the data isn’t there.
EDINET refresh cadence — Japan does not have US Form-4 same-day insider reporting. Material insider activity, if any, will only show up in the next ASR. Don’t expect granular tape.
Management grade A− / Green-with-yellow-on-disclosure-granularity carries from prior entry. The 3-day window provided no new datapoints — positive or negative. The next material governance read is the FY3/26 annual securities report in June 2026.
The Ibiden management team is a textbook Japanese listed setup:
long-tenured, technically deep, conservative on disclosure, conservative
on capital structure, willing to bet meaningful capex at the right
moment (Oono). This is a team to trust with capital — the only working
question is whether the price you’re paying for their work is right
(covered in [[4062-deep-dive]]).
This is a 3-day delta refresh on an existing inv-q entry; no new queue line needed. Next material governance read scheduled for FY3/26 ASR drop in June 2026 — worth a calendar reminder.